Thoughts on 1950s cards over the next 15 years?
 

Hi all, great forum here. Seems the perfect place for any advice on my situation.

I was a casual baseball card collector as a kid of the 70s and 80s. Before my grandmother passed a few years ago, she said she couldn't leave much for her evenual grandkids, but gave me a box of pretty well-preserved cards that my father collected, with strict instructions to use them, whatever the worth might be, to help send my first child to college.

I had forgotten this until I came across them this weekend, ironically my son's 3rd birthday. As I went back through the cards, they are mostly '53 through '57 Topps, and '53 through '55 Bowmans, with a mix of stars and commons. (The '57 Topps and '53 Bowman colors are in especially nice condition to my uneducated eye). I'd guess about 700-800 cards in total.

I don't need the money, and actually would prefer to hold and preserve them to give to my kids someday as I will my personal collection, but want to fulfill my grandmother's wish. So I'm looking for thoughts from long-time collectors and experts around here. Given the vintage of the cards, would you advise someone in my shoes to sell them now, or hold them now and sell then? In other words, this is just a somewhat fun projection on what the market for this vintage will be over the next 15 years, when my oldest will start college. My initial thought is that those years would appeal to the baby boomers, so I'd be better off selling now.

Secondly, if I decide to sell now, what are your recommended outlets for individual card sales? I don't see myself taking the time to go rent a booth at a card show or anything like that.

Third, if I decide to sell in bulk now (i.e. not worry about maximizing proceeds) any advice on doing that would be welcome.

Finally, I spent a few hours this weekend surfing here and other places on the subject of grading. From my brief read, seems the advice would be, for these years, to go PSA (Beckett--I know, not BCCG!--for modern, SGC for pre-war?), and limit it to stars, and those that I think might get a 7+. Not that I've done enough research yet to know what a 7 might look like...

Obviously any educated feedback would require seeing the lot, so just interested in any general observations anyone would be kind enough to share. I'm in Atlanta, so if there are any recommendations of reputable and trustworthy folks here to talk to, I'd also appreciate that.

I did scan a few of the star cards last night, which are attached. I'd say the condition of these is generally indicative of the condition of all the cards in each of the years, with the exception of the 56T Mantle, which is much worse than the others (looks like my dad must have had it on the top of a rubber-band-secured stack at some point!).

I also am logging the inventory as a "public" collection into beckett.com (seemed like an easy format and I could eyeball the useless book values to begin to ID better cards). I have about 135 in so far. My username there is also wfubob if you have any interest at looking what I've logged in and you know how to view public collections (obviously ignore the condition column, as NM/M is the default on the site).

Thanks in advance for any thoughts.

Robert

Sorry, obviously title should say "1950s" but can't seem to edit that!

You are lucky in that - based on your scans - this collection appears to have survived in fairly clean condition overall. That means grading will have to be in play if your goal is to maximize the value. With a collection of 800 or fewer cards, it shouldn't take too much time or require to much effort to break this down and piece it out if you desire. Here's how I would proceed:

A) Pull any star or Hall of Famer with a "book value" of over $100 and examine closely with intent to send to PSA (my preference, though some may disagree). This includes players such Mantle, Banks RC, Mays, Clemente, Aaron, Drysdale RC, Berra and more. Your goal for these is a 5 or better, as they will still bring decent money in that grade. Exclude anything with a crease, really bad centering or major defect -- sell those raw. If you get a 7s, 8s, or even one 9 you are golden.

B) Look for ultra-sharp/high-grade commons and low-pops to send in to PSA. Be careful with these, because if you send in commons and they come back 5s you likely will lose money on the grading fee. Your goal for these is a 7 or better. Look for very sharp corners, 60/40 centering or better and a clean surface. Commons in 8 or 9s from the years you have will bring nice money.

C) Sell the graded vintage you get back on eBay, either though straight auctions or Buy It Nows.

D) Piece out low-grade stars (single cards) and bulk common lots (no more than 50 cards per lot) in raw form at a local auction house that has a sports auction and a following of collectors. (or at least has sports knowledge). A good example of this is Hunt Auctions of Exton, PA. Alternatively, you can sell the raw stars and common lots on eBay yourself. They will bring about the same amount as a well-known auction house.

E) Do not consider selling the entire 800-count collection as one unit, especially as raw. You will be leaving money on the table.

Good luck.
Rob

Thank you Rob for your thoughts. That process makes good sense.

What are "low-pops"? Google was not my usual friend on that one.

Any thoughts on timing, i.e. value of this vintage today versus holding for awhile over my investment horizon of 15 years? While I don't have to maximize value, I am a private weath manager in my day job, so can't help but think that way :). I have my own thoughts on what having $1 today will be worth in 15 years invested in his college 529 plan (at least my clients hope so!).

Relatedly, anyone know of any resources that track year to year values of cards, be it individual cards or whole sets?

I think most would agree that, generally speaking, we are in a down market for cards right now. Whether that is because of the economy or other factors (old-time collector's dying off, no new collectors coming into the hobby, etc.) is anyone's guess. So if you can afford to hold them, now might not be the best time to sell. However, without the benefit of a crystal ball, it is impossible to say whether the market will get better next year or continue on its downward trajectory for another 20 years.

The one thing I can say for certainty is that high-grade vintage will always be in short supply and in high demand, so based on your scans I think you are in a good position to reap some decent rewards -- no matter what the market looks like. Some of the cards you have will always bring a nice buck, as they are classic cards that collectors of all ages want.

A "low pop" simply refers to a PSA or SGC card, whether it be a common or star, that is extremely difficult to find in high PSA grades due to a number of factors (almost always found off-center due to where it was on the printing sheet, etc.). So a "low population" 1957 Topps PSA 9 common card of a player you never heard of could bring $1K or more because there are only five or so PSA 9s of that particular card in existence (simple supply and demand). So if you have some "low pops" you will want to get them graded, as high-end set registry people will be looking for them. You can look up the population reports on the PSA website - I believe that function is now free for everybody.
Best,
Rob

I say put them back in the box and don't open until the kid is a junior in highschool.

Doug

College Fund
 

Since your son is only 3 and you don't need the money, I agree with Doug.

I also agree with Doug. That way your son can help with the liquidation and maybe appreciate the fact that his grandfather collected the cards as well.

I've only used VCP once, for one day, but doesn't it show historical values for realized prices of graded cards?

I also think you should hold onto them. You have some really nice cards.

Another vote for holding onto them.

I'd grade the elite cards and then hold them (if I could afford the $500 or so to grade the top group).

You want those protected, just in case.

I would hold onto them as well...except any and all Indians cards which you should box up and send to me so that I can hold onto them for you :D

Hold
 

Cards that you inherit and hope to pass on you should def hold onto them as you will likely regret selling them off and never being able to get those actual ones back...Just don't expect the cards to mature like stocks/bonds but card of this era shouldn't go down much and if so just a little

I appreciate all the feedback! Learning a ton about how the industry has changed (for the better and worse!) since I got out of active collecting in the mid-80s. Enjoying it so much, I may come back in. Forgot how great it is!

I just wanted to clarify one thing--as I said in my initial post--I don't need the money. I would prefer to not sell the cards, preserve them in holders in my safe deposit box and give them to my kids someday (as I will my 70s and 80s collection). However, my grandmother gave very specific instructions that she wanted me to use the money from them to help send my oldest to college. Not to be sappy, but she couldn't afford to send her kids to college, and that's why I'm going to sell them. And you never crossed grandma!

It's just a matter of when over the next 15 years, which was the heart of my question to you guys, experts on this vintage. Obviously noone has a crystal ball as to values, but you are much more experienced than me.

Thanks again for any thoughts.

Seems that you could satisfy your want to keep 'em and grandma's want to send the grandkids to college by getting them appraised (or appraising them yourself), buying them yourself, and then using the proceeds to fund the educations.

That's exactly what I was thinking.

Not all grandma's are card experts
 

It's certainly admirable that you wish to abide by your grandmother's wishes, but give some thought to the possiblity that, however well-intentioned she was, the period from 1980 to 1995 was full of media reports about the new "hobby craze" of card collecting, with wildly inflated estimates of old card values. I think this period of publicity and hype may have led many people outside the
hobby to think that any old card collection was some sort of treasure trove and more valuable than it actually is.
Thus, your current knowledge of card values and how best to handle the collection should probably override - or at least temper - grandma's instructions at this point.
The psychologist is now out.

Very funny! :D

What would happen if you didn't comply with those instructions - if you either kept the cards for your own personal collection (with no intention of selling them), or gave them to your child once he turned 18? Is there a stipulation in your grandmother's will mandating you to sell the cards for your child's benefit?

So I've had so much fun re-discovering the collector that has been buried in me for 25+ years, I've decided that I'm going to "buy" the cards from my wonderful grandmother, with her proceeds going straight to my son's 529 plan. Then I'm going to start set building, starting with the '53 Bowman color and '57 Topps. The former is a beautiful set and the latter is the one I have the most of in very nice condition. Thanks to all on here for the advice.

To establish grandma's proceeds, I sent 46 star cards off to PSA yesterday. As for the rest, I'd appreciate any ballparks on common values for the following sets. I'm going to assume a 5-6 grade on average.

53, 54, 55, 56, and 57 Topps
53, 54, 55 Bowman

Again, really appreciate the forum here, and look forward to buying your cards on the cheap :D

pm
 

pm sent...

great decisions....always nice to have more addicts....uh, I mean collectors, among us......happy collecting!!! (your grandma would be proud too)

Cards, any commodities for that matter, are like stocks, and you have to act like that sometimes when you are concerned with profit and loss.

And the big lesson of the stock market is that it is the stupid person who panics and sells when the prices start dropping. The smart ones buy up everything the stupid ones sell at at a savings.

Hang on to your cards. They're not apple stock that are going to explode in prices, but they DO hold their value, and they'll trend up. Right now I'm buying all the 52's my budget will allow, because I'm convinced they're going to go up in the next 10 to 15.

As for the idea that these cards will lose value as the baby boomers start to sell off their collections and pass away, I completely reject that notion. If that were true, then the t206 cards should be within anyone's budget to collect, because all their original owners are dead, as are those who would've remembered seeing them play.

But we all know that's not the case, and the t206 set is the unquestioned Mount Everest of ball card collecting.

And why else to I believe these cards will retain, even gain in value? Because of people like me. I'm 28. I played all of four years of little league and quit, and I've been to three major league games in my life. I care nothing for today's steroid fueled game, filled with players who have NO sense of team or community loyalty, who gleefully sell themselves to the highest bidder.

Yet I'm ENDLESSLY fascinated with the old days of baseball. I quiz my dad about it all the time (he collected Topps 57-63), and agrees that baseball he knew growing up is gone now. Baseball was every boy's life in the 50s. It really represents the best of America (at least, once baseball integrated). It is pure.

And what I adore about these cards, especially the 52s, is that they are not the ready made, instant collectible crap I see being hawked at the booths for 50 cents a piece. They were made for kids, to be loved by kids. They are full of these players who are athletes, gods and your big brother all in one. Hell, some of the players in the 52 series have halos! I love thinking about how each card I own was bought by some kid who used his allowance or lawn mower money. Some kid loved that card, adored that player.

I even think baseball cards play an subtle, unspoken role in the civil rights movement. The black players in the Topps set are just like the other players. All that matters are the stats. Who made up the first four players of the legendary 52 High series: Mantle, Robinson, Thomson, Campy. Two whites, two blacks. Equal. The first card of the 53 set was Jackie Robinson. THAT is saying something. You can't tell me that didn't have a subtle impact on impressionable kids.

And I gotta believe there are others my age who feel the same way. So many of my generation are really switched on to vintage. Vintage vinyl, vintage consumer goods. We want that quality of manufacturing before it was all outsourced, that longevity (my parent's frigidaire from the 70s is still cranking), and that beauty of art and design. I restore tube radios and soda fountain milkshake mixers, and they simply don't make things of that quality or beauty any more.

There are 300 million people in this country. Of those more than 100 million are under 30. Only a few thousand of them need to be like me, to love these cards like me. Those are good odds I think.

The hobby will be just fine.

----/
Very well said indeed.
I hope you are right.

Hobby v Investment
 

For those of us for whom it is strictly a hobby, it has and will always be just fine

Amen!

Sorry to have to say it but, the demographics are what they are. Since the decades of steady rise in hobby interest hit its frenzied peak in the early '90's, hobby interest has been in a steep decline. This has always been a hobby with its roots steeped in childhood experiences. Unfortunely, the exploding interest in the hobby, back in the early '90's, was so badly managed that the generations that have followed have not grown up with those cherished memories. The shortsightedness, shift in the collector/investor matrix focus, and overt greed led to a bubble that largely turned off the last generation (individuals now in their late 20's and early 30's) that grew up with the hobby "bug."

The change in hobby focus from collector to investor, lead to kids treating their card collection as investment portfolio. This manipulated market is what led to all the bad feelings towards the "worthless shiny crap," after the inevitable bursting of the bubble. The hobby is headed to where stamp collecting is at today-- where the rarest of examples still fetch huge dollars from the "I bought it because I can" crowd, while the true collector market has all but dried up.

Great to see a 28 year old with such genuine passion and pure interest in the hobby. There won't be enough of them to keep prices from plummeting, IMHO.

To the true collectors that remain, that won't be an entirely bad thing. And there will always be some value in the cards that were made when it truely was a hobby. That's more than I can say for my other leisurely interests.

Again, I disagree. Young people like myself are more and more getting passionate about these kinds of these. We're more selective about our tastes is all.

There are really two halves to the hobby: the REAL collectible, and the READY made crap. The REAL collectibles are the vintage stuff. Talking 40s and 50s and sixties. Some might go further, I frankly have no interested in stuff after the mid sixties. The artistry doesn't compare to the sheer artistry of the early to mid 50s stuff. With a few exceptions, yes, the stuff made the last 30 years or so will plummet. It's worthless crap to my eye, made to be hawked by obese dealers whose idea of vintage is stuff so beaten up it doesn't deserve to be called PO-1, yet is priced for a PSA 5 or 6. But the true, classic stuff will gain in its appreciation by a generation of which I include myself which is growing to appreciate the quality and artistry in American manufacturing before it all got outsourced and planned obsolescence became the modus operandi of big corporate manufacturers.

Also, realize that vintage baseball cards have appeal beyond baseball fans. There are also those who appreciate the artistry of the cards themselves, and the quality of the printing methods. Heck, that's what draws me to the 52s. I simply adore those hand coloured, flexichrome images. They are utterly gorgeous, candy colored works of real American ingenuity and craft. And then there are those who appreciate them for their place in Americana, what they represent: a far less cynical time, when cards were made for boys to trade and put in bicycle spokes, not to be transferred straight from the pack to the plastic. I love these cards because I know some kid held them in his hand and loved them, treasured them.

Lastly, I would not be so quick to compare them to stamps, speaking as someone who collected stamps, coins and now cards. There was no comparison to my eye. What killed my interest in stamps was all the fine detail. I couldn't have cared less how many perforations a stamp had, whether it was from a roll or a sheet. Didn't give a care about a slight difference in the cross hatching on the engraving between type 1 and type 2, the different watermarks, the size of the z-grill or the tint of blue.

I collected coins for a decade, but ultimately fell out of the hobby because there wasn't enough variety. I put together complete sets of just about every 20th century coin, yet the thrill faded because apart from the dates and the mint marks, they were all the same.

What thrills me about ball cards is each card is different, each card has it's own character, it's own challenges. I love that, in the 52 series, there are some cards, like the Mathews, that are damn near impossible to find well centered, or the Yvars, who always seems to come diamond cut.

I also think there is a different persona involved when you're talking about the collectors. What largely turned me off to stamps and coins were the collectors/dealers I came upon were largely assholes. Old curmudgeons who whipped out their graysheets and didn't seem to love the coins, so much as covet them and what price they would fetch. They were not particularly friendly or cheerful or enthusiastic, and not ones I'd want to hang with.

But ballcard dealers, the ones who deal in legit, quality vintage, have all been wonderful to do business with, wonderful to chat with, and do what they do because they never quite lost the kid in them. They really do adore the hobby. So many of the ones I encountered do it part time, or they've retired, and now they're revisiting something they love.

And that is the big lesson. You think the hobby is dying? Well with that attitude it will. It's all in the hands of the old guard, to work on their outreach. To smile and be cheerful and interact with the young and get them excited about the hobby. If you just grouse and make gross generalizations, grumbling about "Those kids these days, they just want to download everything and they don't care, and they're gonna let this hobby die," well of COURSE you're gonna prompt those kids to do just that, and go off to somewhere else, because who wants to be dismissed or lumped in with the rest of their generation.

I intend on building one of the finest baseball card sets ever. Going to finish the 52s, then the rest of the 50s Topps. Then the Bowmans. Leafs. Goudey's. The t205s, Crackers Jacks and, yes, the t206.

So the hobby will last at least as long as I do, if I have anything to say or do about it.

Briansrun10, you have made some excellent points. Personally, I believe that true collectors are born with "a collector gene." I collected stamps and coins as a youngster, before I started collecting cards. And sports card collectors are almost always also sports enthusiasts, which greatly enhances the collecting enthusiasm and interest. IMO, Stamp and coin collectors don't have something comparable to fuel their collecting enthusiasm and interest. Hence, I believe that sports card collecting will thrive in the future much more than coin and stamp collecting.
Val

Precisely. And I think more and more people will be drawn with fascination to the classic years of baseball, back before players became steroid addled monstrosities. Back when players had a sense of community loyalty, and stuck with teams rather then sell them and their fans out for a bigger paycheck, and a better shot at a World Series Ring. Back when getting their autograph meant hanging out by the entrance to the team locker room, not in line for an hour to pay 50 bucks for a drunken, wavy line passing for a signature.

Like I said, I have practically zero interest in major league ball today. None. But I adore the game as it was played in the 50s and earlier. It is an era that everyone I talk to who grew up in it speaks of with great fondness. It is an era I sorely wish I could know, but never will.

Through vintage cards, I'm able to get a little taste of it.

Brian, I think what you are lamenting is a broad shift in society as a whole, as much as a change in pro sports itself. Reading the bio of a local baseball icon a while back, it struck me that he took great pride in forfeiting potentially the four most productive years of his pitching career to serve during WWII, and after encountering arm problems in 1949, he refused to accept a token increase in salary the next year, telling the team owner he didn't deserve it, even though he had already earned his spot in the HOF. Bob Feller died in 2010, a few months after another local idol, LeBron James, made his "decision."