Supply vs. Demand (Vintage Pre-1914 baseball)
 

Just sunday food for thought...

I guess we probably use the T206 as the metric... but there seems to be quite a few insanely rare sets and singles from 1895-1910, that dont hold the valuation they should ( at least based on HOF'r vs Population) Some cards that appear between population reports (SGC and PSA) are in the 2 digits (20-200) total...

overlooked? lack of sentiment? availablity = desire

what you guys think?

(just one example - https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball...-caramel/36061 )

Notoriety and inability to attempt to complete sets are a major issue. Attractiveness of cards.

I agree with all of the above. I see notoriety as being a huge factor in pushing value of cards. Most pre 1914 cards are FAR rarer then almost anything else but some sell for less then a 2020 zion harper or trout....

James G

Just having a dialogue
 

with a fellow collector about similar post war rarities. I think certain issues are so rare/obscure that collectors are unable to "actively collect" them leading to significantly decreased demand. I think the T 206 Honus Wagner card is a great vintage example of a card that is not rare - I think at least around 50 known copies, but rare enough yet "available" enough to drive demand and prices. Some prewar cards and post war rarities have single digit populations (some low single digit) - making them hard to actively collect.

It's also got a historical backstory (chased at the time, Wagner "hated" smoking, etc).
In modern, it's similar to the 1990 Topps Frank Thomas NNOF card since it's always been a limited chase card in a heavily overproduced set.

yah i think thats key.... low pop = highly available set

hence why 1/1 work well in todays market

still.... i think scaracity is the same as value investing.....