Ohtani's Japanese cards -- something to look at?
 

Been looking at Ohtani's early cards from Japan -- the BBMs and Calbees from 2013 (rookie card year) and 2014. Prices have come up, but relative to their scarcity and the fact that he is such a massive star in Japan (not a small market for collectors), I wonder if they have more room to run than the many, many different RCs from 2018 in the US. Any thoughts?

In Japan prices for his rookies have exploded. I think a lot of it is driven by American demand though. I have no idea what his American cards sell for in comparison.

His early Calbee and BBM cards are selling for more than most of Ichiro’s early cards are, despite the latter being scarcer (and Ichiro already having a HOF career in the books). I have some Ohtani Calbees that I’ve pulled from packs over the years, but figure I’ll wait until the hype settles down before buying anymore. I’m a huge fan, but I feel buying his cards now is a bit like pouring all your money into McGwire rookies in 1998.

Thanks, Sean. Had a look at your blog. You're clearly a domain expert and have been at this for some time.

Humbly, I was thinking about the pricing of his early cards as a option on the probability that he performs at, say, 70% of his current level for the next 8 years, or 90% for the next 4 years. If so, he's not only a Hall of Fame lock, but he's likely considered the consensus best player ever.

So perhaps this is like pricing the option of buying Babe Ruth's 1914 cards (population adjusted) in 1923?