Next HOF Closer
 

Kenley Jansen has gotta be closing in on it. while his k's are down under 1/IP for the first time he's having a fine season and shows no reason to think he's not going to be the third man to break 500 saves. With Kimbrel's odd struggles (how can you still be striking out 14 batters every 9 innings but somehow be hittable at the same time?) he has distanced himself from the field. Chapman is having a monster year but at 37, it's doubtful that he gets much past 400 saves.

Jansen beats Billy Wagner pretty handily in the vast majority of points of comparison and their careers overlapped in 2010 so roughly the same conditions and state of the game for each.

So do you agree that Jansen is on the cusp? Is there any other reliever currently that you see that I'm missing?

Closer is hard. I’d say he’s on the cusp but it doesn’t seem like anything is guaranteed. I don’t see a lot of separation between him and K-Rod but K-Rod doesn’t get a lot of support. I know Jensen has more saves but K-Rod has the 62 save season to make up for that. Still not much consideration.

What's the book on Jansen from a media/sportswriter likability perspective? That could make or break his case, honestly.

That said, he's been an average to slightly below average reliever for a long time now.

Agree on the likability being important. I also wonder if Billy Wagner getting in makes it easier or hard for Jansen.

That's Iman interesting question. I don't know either

Hall of Fame voting for closers seems like a crapshoot, but if Jansen gets to 500 career saves, I think he gets in. He's been pretty consistent for 14 years and also has a significant amount of postseason appearances where his performance has been comparable to his regular season work. If a voter is willing to vote for a reliever (which I don't think all are), it's hard to see why they wouldn't vote for Jansen. His raw stats are as good or better than Kimbrel and Chapman who are his contemporaries so he could be considered the best closer of his era which is another reason some may decide to vote for him.

I think if Jansen gets 500 saves he is probably likely to make it. Next HOF closer though, depends on how much traction Francisco Rodriguez gets as the years go on, he has hung around on the ballot after 3 votes now. So unless he makes some big jumps then it will be Jansen or Kimbrel maybe.

I do wonder though will a reliever ever make the HOF that wasn't a closer.

Hoyt Wilhelm saved 228 games but he also pitched more than 2,000 innings and appeared in over 1,000 games. Probably the closest example to that.