Players not yet eligible for HOF new version
 

The last time we did this was after the 2023 season. Copying my last list as it was, except omitting newly elected HOFers, and adding three more years of RCs as well as updates in bold. Note that in some cases like Harper "lock" assumes the player continues to have at least modestly productive years, not that if their career ended today they would be automatic.


2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely) UPGRADED TO MAYBE
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely) UPGRADED TO LOCK
2002 Votto (likely)UPGRADED TO LOCK
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (too soon to tell) DOWNGRADED TO UNLIKELY
2010 Kenley Jansen (unlikely) UPGRADED TO MAYBE
2011 Altuve (likely)UPGRADED TO LOCK
2011 Freeman (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY UPGRADED TO LOCK
2011 Sale (maybe)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Aroldis Chapman (unlikely)
2011 Salvador Perez (maybe)
2011 Goldschmidt (unlikely) UPGRADED TO LIKELY UPGRADED TO LOCK
2011 Craig Kimbrel (unlikely)
2012 Harper (likely) UPGRADED TO LOCK
2013 Arenado (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2013 Machado (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2013 Cole (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2014 Betts (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY UPGRADED TO LOCK
2014 DeGrom (too soon to tell) DOWNGRADED TO UNLIKELY UPGRADED TO MAYBE
2014 J Ramirez (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LOCK
2014 Bogaerts (unlikely)
2015 Lindor (too soon to tell)UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2015 Correa (too soon to tell)
2016 Trea Turner (too soon to tell)
2016 Seager (too soon to tell)
2017 Bregman (too soon to tell)
2017 Judge (lock)
2018 Ohtani (lock)
2018 Soto (lock)
2018 Acuna (too soon to tell)
2018 Max Fried (too soon to tell)

Jansen??
 

I think certainly likely if not a lock. Probably coming back in 2026. 24 saves from becoming third player to reach 500 saves. 3 saves from passing Lee Smith for 3rd all time.

LOL I upgraded Jansen to maybe. Not convinced any more relief pitchers are likely.

You don't think Giancarlo Stanton can get to 500 home runs? He's at 453 right now, and everyone not on the juice who got to 500 is in the Hall.

See link...

https://stathead.com/baseball/vs/aro...-kenley-jansen

Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen are very comparable. If Jansen is a lock, shouldn't Chapman at least be on the list?

We're missing Aaron Judge on this list. I think he's a lock.

I don't think 500 is enough for him. He misses a ton of games, has hit .250 or lower in nearly half his seasons, etc.

I took your list. Only including those where I disagreed. Added a couple (in bold) that I think were overlooked

1995 Beltran (likely) - His numbers are simply too good.
2001 Utley (likely) - already at 40% in his 2nd year of voting.
2002 Greinke (lock) - 225 wins. 75+ WAR. No doubt in my mind.
2010 Chris Sale (likely) - Not sure if you overlooked him. Approaching 150 wins, so that total is not high, but an ERA+ of 141 is better than Christy Mathewson, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Sandy Koufax and almost every other MLB starter not named Kershaw, Pedro, or Lefty Grove.
2011 Goldschmidt (likely) - He has an MVP and I think he has a good shot, but I'm not sure he is a lock.
2013 Arenado (50/50) - boy has he fallen off a cliff after a career-best seasons in 2022. Not sure if I'd put him in now, and I'm unsure if he'll continue to provide much value going forward.
2014 Betts (lock) - Has 75+ WAR. An MVP and 3 2nd place finishes. 3x World Series winner. Was an elite outfield (6 gold gloves) and then transitioned to play high quality infield. Absolute legend and a lock in my mind.
2014 DeGrom (50/50) - 2025 revived his chances. Similar to Sale but more extreme in that his ERA+ is better than any started with 1500 inning except for Kershaw and Pedro Martinez.
2015 Lindor (likely) - Another season of around 6 WAR brings his total up to 55+. Another 30/30 season. Next year he should surpass 300 HR's. His career is almost HOF worthy if he retired tomorrow, and he has shown no signs of shlowing down.
2016 Aaron Judge (lock) - If he was forced to retire tomorrow, I believe he would be a worthy HOFer. Has a strong chance of becoming the 2nd player ever to win a 4th MVP, and the first without a steroid controvery hanging over it. He holds the AL record for HR in a season and is one of 4 players all-time to have 50 homeruns in a season 4 times (the others are McGwire, Sosa and Babe Ruth...)
2018 Shohei Ohtani (lock) Only thing keeping him out of the HOF today is not having played 10 seasons. 3rd straight season leading the league in OPS. 50/50 season last year. 2nd straight 50-HR season. And he has a career ERA of 3.00 and K's 11.4 guys per 9 innings.

Ohtani also -- he'll be the first guy after Bonds to his 4th MVP.

I totally agree with you about Mookie Betts. The guy is such a winner -- and a team player. He's even better than his stats suggest. Look at him this season. Not a single ounce of self pity, and the man comes through when it counts.

If the Mets could find a way to dump Juan Soto on the Dodgers and pair Mookie Betts with Lindor, the good guys would have a few more rings and we can stop living in 1986.

If Stanton does get to 500 home runs, it will be very interesting to see how the vote goes for him. Currently, his career WAR is 46.8. He has 2 more seasons on his current contract If he can replicate this season, he'll just get to 500 home runs and 50 WAR. I think he eventually gets into the Hall, but even with 500 home runs, I don't think it's on the first ballot because WAR is definitely used by a lot of voters these days.

Based on the HOF Voting and the lack of sure-fire candidates in the next couple of years, Carlos Beltran should be updated to somewhere between Probably and Lock. Based on the voting, he'll be selected in January. There really are almost no locks the next couple of years so that will help those who have previously done strongly on the ballot

Here is the 2025 voting

https://www.baseball-reference.com/a...hof_2025.shtml

For the purpose of this exercise, here is a list of future candidates as noted by the HOF

https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-fame/future-eligibles

No one in 26

I see Posey in 27 if voters forgive his "shorter" career

I see Molina and Pujols in 28

I see Cabrera and Votto in 29

That leaves room in 26 and 27 for many people

Rich


Regards
Rich

If the list is supposed to be players not yet eligible for the HoF, then Beltran and Utley shouldn't still be on it. However, I agree with you that Beltran is probably a lock to get voted in this coming election. I also think Utley is at least a maybe instead of unlikely.

Keep an eye on Matt Olson. He turns 32 in March 2026...got some years left to stack some numbers. Hits won't be impressive, but he's a bit of an "Iron Man" player not missing games along with his great D and power.

RIght you are.

Adjustments made. Ohtani too recent by my criteria,

What is the criteria you are using?

2017 RC cutoff. Arbitrary, I know, You have a pretty good sense of where most guys are going after 9 years.

Thanks for putting the list together .. I couldn’t imagine Molina not getting in

Why is this in the main section rather than the watercooler section?

Because the HOF is a topic of general interest and threads on the main board get multiple times more views.

Jose Ramirez isnt a lock yet?

I think Bryce is already a lock also

How dare you tell the world outside of Cleveland how good JRam is. ;)

Fair enough. I guess I've posted things here that weren't strictly in the category either.

For those who never look at the watercooler section though—there's lots of current/recent baseball talk over there...

Yeah I will update both I think this is right.

I'm struggling to see why Arenado is a "maybe," while Altuve is a "lock."

Arenado led the league in HR three times, has a career OPS of .846 (119 OPS+), and won 10 Gold Gloves in a row (subjective, yes, but a measure of how his defense is perceived, and objective metrics rate him as an excellent fielder).

Altuve has similar offensive numbers, but is generally rated as a poor fielder and will probably lose some votes because of the cheating scandal.

If Altuve is considered a lock, what's the knock on Arenado?

I think Kimbrel should be a "maybe". Kimbrel/Jansen might be the last closers to make the HOF...unless someone we haven't seen yet establishes themselves.

The last couple years for Kimbrel haven't been good, but let's not discount his career.

440 Saves
2.58 ERA
9X All-Star

He would be the best and most qualified RP not to make the HOF - at least in the last 30+ years.

Clase was on a good trajectory, but forget about him now. Hader/Diaz are prob next best - but I dont' see them having the longevity.

And whatever you think of the "cheating" scandal, Altuve has 2 WS rings, Arenado 0 WS rings

Someone else previously mentioned that Chapman should at least be on the list. I think he's as likely or unlikely as Kimbrel and Jansen to get into the Hall of Fame.

OK I will add him but I am starting him as unlikely LOL. 2011 has a crazy number of rookies.

I just checked Chapman and you know, he has a legit HOF shot

Well over 300 saves. dominating fastball (which he still has) and has 2 WS rings.

Maybe not a high shot, but I'd take my chances on an investment flyer with him

And one more year like this puts him at 400 or so career saves

Because he is a reliever, the HOF criteria is not as well defined as for every other position but at least in one of the BB Ref monitors, he is already HOF worthy

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...hapmar01.shtml

Yes, agree with Chapman as well. He fell off a bit, but his revitalization should put him back on these types of lists.

It will be interesting to see how the voters handle Chapman, Kimbrel and Jansen once they're on the ballot. It looks like Kimbrel will be first since he appears to be basically done as an effective pitcher while Chapman and Jansen will certainly be back for at least next season. Their careers completely overlap each others, and aside from a (currently) wide range in their save totals, their other career stats are relatively close - Jansen has about 100 games and innings but ERA and strikeouts are all pretty close. Right now, it looks like Jansen will have the most innings and saves so he may have the best chance at getting in (as currently indicated in predications).

Let's not forget Chapman's effect on stats leaderboards...

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/statcast-le...er/c-143085552

All of my changes and/or additions are in red:

1995 Beltran (Lock for 2026)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (Lock based on recent voting, but he has a few years to go)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely) UPGRADED TO LOCK
2002 Votto (likely)UPGRADED TO LOCK
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (Lock)
2005 Cruz (Likely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (Lock)
2010 Stanton (Likely)
2010 Kenley Jansen (Likely)
2011 Altuve (likely)UPGRADED TO LOCK
2011 Freeman (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY UPGRADED TO LOCK
2011 Sale (maybe)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Salvador Perez (Lock)
2011 Aroldis Chapman (unlikely)
2011 Goldschmidt (unlikely) UPGRADED TO LIKELY UPGRADED TO LOCK
2011 Craig Kimbrel (Likely)
2012 Harper (likely) UPGRADED TO LOCK
2013 Arenado (Lock)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2013 Cole (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY
2014 Betts (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LIKELY UPGRADED TO LOCK
2014 DeGrom (Likely)
2014 J Ramirez (too soon to tell) UPGRADED TO LOCK
2014 Bogaerts (No)
2015 Lindor (too soon to tell)
2015 Correa (No)
2016 Trea Turner (too soon to tell)
2016 Seager (too soon to tell)
2017 Bregman (No)
2017 Judge (lock)
2018 Ohtani (Lock)

Salvador Perez with a 35 WAR and 32nd at catcher per JAWS a lock?? Can you explain that one? He feels to me like Jorge Posada.

Never understood this argument in baseball. By this logic Jim Leyritz>Ted Williams. It's a team game and one player cannot lift a team that stinks, or really even a decent team.

Unless you're saying that Altuve would've won championships on Arenado's teams and Arenado wouldn't have on Altuve's teams. I would disagree, but I'd at least understand the point.

Not sure how you can have Harper a lock and Machado likely? If anything I would have it the other way around.

Ketel Marte warrant any discussion yet?

Perhaps Leyritz v. Williams is too extreme. But what do you think about DiMaggio v. Williams? 9 rings versus 0, but 79 WAR versus 121. Yes, it's a team game, but I think rings do play into an individual player's legend.

Not only a lock, but a first-ballot lock. I really don't think this needs explaining, but:

9 AS Games
5 Silver Slugger
5 Gold Gloves
1 WS MVP

9 seasons over 20 HR at a notoriously thin position offensively. I could go on, but, trust me, he's a lock. The affable personality will definitely help. It usually does.

He's definitely on the right trajectory, but he still has a ways to go.

Rings might add gloss to a resume, but they don't mean as much in baseball as in basketball or football, where one player can elevate a mediocre roster.

The list of HOF-caliber players who never won a World Series is long, and includes players like Cobb, Lajoie, Banks, Yastrzemski, Yount, Bagwell, Bonds, Gwynn, Griffey, Thomas, Thome, Trout... and so on.

And Altuve didn't exactly carry the Astros on his back in his four World Series appearances. His WS batting line is .256/.273/.427. Altuve was brilliant in 2017, but most people outside Houston would only remember the 2017 title for the trashcan controversy.

During the 2022 championship season, Altuve was overshadowed by Tucker, Alvarez, and Verlander, and he absolutely sucked during the playoffs, with a .190 BA and .483 OPS in 13 games. That year, Altuve was 0-17 in the ALDS and 3-18 in the ALCS with 0 RBI, contributing little to the Astros' 7-0 record in those games.

The point is I don't think Altuve's rings add much to his candidacy, and the shine is off when you look under the hood.

Bill Freehan was an 11 time all star.

I'd like to offer that Lindor is likely as I think his offensive numbers will be overwhelming for a SS by the time he is done if he stays healthy. His GG days are probably behind him but offensively at this pace (he'll be 32 by next season) he'll become the all-time leader in home runs by a SS (he's only 74 behind Cal) as well as the first SS to reach 300 HRs and 300 steals (he needs 84 steals). He might even reach 400 career HRs. And he is also on pace at ending up top-5 in hits, RBIs, and runs scored, respectively, by a SS. His WAR (I'm still not quite sure how much weight to put on this stat) should end up at least in the 60s. Love these topics!

Legend maybe. But caliber of player? Williams is far superior to DiMaggio.

Again how many rings does Williams get on the Yankees? Especially considering Williams excelled for a decade PAST DiMaggio. Can you Imagine the 1950's Yankees with Williams AND Mantle?

How many rings does DiMaggio get with the Red Sox and there crap pitching?

DiMaggio and Williams were almost traded for each other. The dealbreaker was Tom Yawkey wanted Yogi Berra, who was still in the minors, as well.

Freehan and Lance Parrish are comparable to Salvi. Both won WS, have similar ASG appearances and Gold Gloves and could hit for power.

I'm not clear which of 3 has strongest case but Salvi being active causes us to view him with wider eyes.

Thoughts on Blake Snell? He has 2 Cys and has been very good in the post season. Injuries have hurt him but when hes "on" like tonight, he's the real deal. He'd need 5-6 strong years into late 30s to even really garner consideration.

The reason I picked DiMaggio to compare with Williams is precisely because Williams is objectively a much better hitter. But legend matters when it comes to HOF voting, and rings add to the legend (noting that it might not be the case for Altuve, as gunboat points out).

Would Big Papi (55 WAR as a career DH) be in the Hall of Fame at all -- much less a first balloter -- if he didn't win 3 rings with the Red Sox?

Edgar Martinez says "Probably."