Quote:
Originally Posted by MyGuyTy
Tough to predict where this hobby is headed, however I will say one thing, it's a pretty safe bet that 25-30 years from now when this new generation is the driving force behind our economy nobody will be forking over $10,000 for a simple drum T206 card or "ghost" or "printing error".
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Really? I think the same thing was said 20+ years ago about the same cards just with different prices.
The thing I think people forget on pre-war is a lot of people who collect this niche are doing so for varied reasons. Many of which are scholarly and collection checklist driven not so much die hard baseball fans. How many of us remember seeing the pre-war players play or are reliving our youth thru pre-war cards? I myself don't even follow modern sports.
There have always been collectors, there will always be collectors. Because of this collectors will accumulate collections and in doing so will want to obtain scarce, tough and even rare items for said collections and extreme prices will be paid in the process.
To announce that 25 years from now nobody will value rarities or scarce items is a silly concept. In terms of the mentioned examples T206 “Ghosts” and scarcer advertising backs. I agree the printing errors have certainly taken a new life from say 20 years ago.
I chalk this up to even more people today collecting this particular set wanting to own something unique. I also chalk it up to folks who have gone as far as they can with the T206 and are running out of things to collect. Meaning they have the set, they have the backs now they need something else to fill the void. When you add in a limited supply of printing errors to this mix of people you see today’s prices. This is a very good thing means there is a healthy amount of collectors on this issue.
In regards to the T206 scarcer brand backs they have always been more expensive or at least for the past 30+ years. Have prices jumped to more dramatic levels? Yes but once again more people and a limited supply along with a few key players and you have your prices. Could prices drop sure but they will drop to an all-time new hobby avg. Example not long ago you could get a Drum for say $1500 and that wasn’t long ago say 5-6 years ago. Even if they drop from 10k for the same card now they will drop to a higher number than ever before due to new historical prices being set within the collecting market. That’s just the nature of any hobby.
To answer the OP’s question I don’t think baseballs popularity will play a huge role in killing the niche we live in. However it will and has affected the modern market which is a gateway often to our niche and overtime could slim down new arrivals but that will take time.
We do have nostalgia on our side. No matter how boring modern baseball gets people will always look fondly upon the romantic version of our Nation’s past and look to own a part of that past.
Cheers,
John