This topic has been discussed numerous times...and the sides are usually split down the middle. My stance on this topic usually mirrors that of myguyty in a lot of ways.
I am a collector...always have been...always will be to a degree...not just vintage bb cards...pottery, art, books, all kinds of stuff. But there aren't that many collectors out there! I don't have any friends outside of this hobby who collect much of anything?
Technology has changed society in so many ways...take music for example. We used to buy records, cassettes...look at them, play them...now people buy mp3's...they buy songs. It's much less tangible. Society is trending away from tangible things in a lot of ways in my opinion...and I find myself getting away from "things" as well.
I agree that the t206 freak/rare back phenomenon is incredibly overinflated...and over time these prices will drop quite a bit.
I think common vintage card supply of non hof'ers will exceed demand in the future causing these prices to drop as well.
I think there are many older collectors who will be leaving us/selling off their collections in the future...causing a large influx of cards into the hobby.
On the other side of the coin...many older people/collectors will be passing away...and will be leaving significant amounts of $$$$ to the younger generations...so the younger folk...while they may not have been successful as their parents will be inheriting a lot of $$$$ so they will have the means to buy baseball cards if they so choose.
As the popularity of modern cards diminishes...this could increase the popularity of older cards.
As the values of common, non high tier hof'ers decrease...the price point of entry will enable more to enter the vintage hobby who as they mature will pursue the higher buck cards.
Noone really knows what will happen to this hobby...we all can speculate...one thing I do know is that despite the fact I am a little bearish on the future of the hobby...I will be an active participant in it until I am no longer able!
I have trimmed my collection from quantity to more "quality" cards over the last few years as I think the big names and rarities will hold their values better over the long term.
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