Hi Donnie,
Are you referring to Daniel Norris of the Blue Jays? Yup, I'm a fan. Unfortunately, when I started prospecting, I didn't buy more than one of a card, because I wasn't planning on doing any selling. I was doing this for my own collection because it was fun to watch a player work their way through the minors, hoping they get to the show, and have a great career. I've missed on some players (that's unavoidable), but I've hit a lot more than I've missed. Norris was one of the guys that I liked when he first appeared on the radar. Plus, his cards were cheap at first.
If you're looking to buy cards to sell later for profit, I like the Bowman Chrome prospect autos. They're typically the first card to come out for any given player once they've been drafted by a Major League team, or even before they've been drafted. Topps has the exclusive rights to use Major League logos, so instead of generic uniforms, you can actually see the player in their eventual uniform. The Bowman Chrome prospect autos are on card, too. No stickers unless you're getting an Olympic card (I think Gerrit Cole has one of those. Others I know that have them are Bubba Starling, Francisco Lindor, Albert Almora, etc. I think more recent USA Olympic prospect autos are now on card). The Bowman Chrome cards can really go up in value. I bought my 2009 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout for $95. Graded BGS 9.5, it's been going around $1,200. Ungraded with great eye appeal can go for $800 or 900. I got a 2006 Bowman Chrome Clayton Kershaw for about $100. It's going for 4 or 5 times that right now. If he wins this Cy Young, which I think is a foregone conclusion, you're starting to enter Sandy Koufax heights. A card that looks nearly identical to mine sold for $500 on an auction yesterday. A Beckett graded one (9.5/10) sold for $600. I could make $1,400 if I sold the Trout and Kershaw. That would be a nice return for slightly below $200.
So, back to the Norris. You're looking at the 2012 Bowman Chrome. That happens to not only be the first year he signed a Bowman Chrome auto, but the first year Bowman Chrome released any card of his. That s not always the case. Taijuan Walker, for example, a top of the rotation stud in Seattle's system, had his first Bowman Chrome prospect auto in 2013. But his first Bowman Chrome card was in 2010. Both should have value if he turns out to be the pitcher I think he'll be.
So, here's my 2012 Bowman Chrome Daniel Norris refractor auto
I am not sure how many base (unserialized) Chrome autos there are. Back in 2004, Bowman published how many there were, which was 1,695. I expect the base number to be somewhat close to that now. There are only 500 refractor autos. What is a refractor? It has a reflective quality that a base card does not have. Then you start getting into colored refractors. Reflective cards that are colored blue, gold, orange, red. Those are smaller runs, typically /150 for blue, /50 for gold, /25 for orange, /10 for purple, /5 for red, and then there's a superfractor. The superfractor is numbered 1/1, and it is super expensive.
You might look to buy a few of the base autos for these cards. Remember that he has reached the Majors now, so there won't be another spike to his cards before being called up. However, I feel his cards are undervalued. There should be some real upside to his cards. Obviously Kershaw is a really amazing pitcher, and a best case scenario, but there's no reason why Norris couldn't get to $100 or more if he starts out strong. Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey' Bowman Chrome prospect autos, for example, were both a good bit over $100 before they had to have shoulder surgery. So, if you bought a card for $15, and sold it for $100, that's a nice profit, isn't it? You're making nearly six times what you paid for the card. Now, you may sell it before it gets that high. That's part of the game. Do you hold it, thinking it might go higher? Or do you think that's a more than acceptable profit margin, and put it up for sale.
I think the first and last rule of thumb is this. You make a profit off of your buy. If he makes the rotation next year, and pitches very well, his card should go for over $50. His refractor would go for more. If I were selling for profit, I might sell the refractor. Even if it only sold for $60, I've just made a $45 profit off of a $15 purchase. I'll be happy all day with a 300% profit.
You might start off with a few players you think will play well in the Majors. But and hold a few cards, and sell them when you see them selling at your desired profit.
I hope that helps you get some ideas! Let me know if you have any more questions. Feel free to shoot me a message.
Good luck!
Bill
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mountaineer1999
Hey Bill. I've seen some of your posts about collecting new player cards for profit. We have a local kid that made the show recently and wondered about what cards of him would be the most collectible. If you have any thoughts on Daniel Norris cards I would appreciate them.
|