[seanofjapan]

Focusing on PWCC only tells you about current demand, it doesn't tell you anything about where demand or supply are going to be at in a couple months when the economic effects of this really start to be felt.

The writing on the wall is clear: lots of people are going to be needing money in the next few months just to get by. Either they'll have lost a job, had their hours cut, or seen their retirement savings decimated by the stock market crash. Government action might cushion the fallout a bit but noway is it going to solve any of it. So anyone with a collection who falls into one of those categories is likely to be making some tough choices in the coming weeks about what they need to get rid of in order to get some money.

And the problem is that all of these people will be making that decision at about the same time, which means you'll likely see a huge spike in stuff for sale this summer. They haven't flooded the market yet because this crisis has been sprung upon us so suddenly and most people who have decent collections probably have some savings to tide them over a bit. But once they reach that point, supply is going to go through the roof at exactly the same time demand craters because the people who are usually buyers have become sellers.

Its the perfect recipe for the market to tank completely. If PWCC prices are still high today, then the smart person would be selling everything they have like mad right now to take advantage of that because it won't last.