Another great discussion!
Obviously, as this is a discussion board about vintage baseball cards, the majority of us (myself included) would prefer a rare Wagner, Ruth, Cobb, Mantle, etc. to a Mike Trout card.
However, in no way do I dismiss this recent Trout sale (as well as any future sale of that card) as any crazier than prices paid for blue chip vintage.
I think a lot of current vintage collectors probably went through a time in our lives as younger collectors when we used to look longingly at those expensive vintage cards and couldn't imagine a day that we could someday own them. Fast forward to our current and future selves when we are lucky enough to be in a position in our lives to have some disposable income that we actually CAN have cards of Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, Willie Mays! And that is what has been driving the increased price/value in vintage over the last 20 years.
Right now there are probably a lot of modern collectors/baseball fans in their twenties, teens, or younger that read about the sale of an almost $4 million dollar 1 of 1 Mike Trout card...and they can't imagine ever owning it. However, it will only take TWO of those kids to become wealthy in their future years to get into a bidding war for what, to them, is the ultimate baseball card.
It's unlikely for that card to sell for more than 4 million in any auction coming up in the next year or so....but I wouldn't be shocked to see that card sell for 10 million, 50 million, 100+ million in 15 to 20 years.
The same nostalgia that we feel for vintage cards is the same nostalgia that current collectors will feel when they hit that stage in their life/careers where they can collect/invest in things that make them happy and bring them back to their childhood. While a lot of us have a hard time understanding the allure of new, shiny, 1 of 1 cards, there is whole generation of collectors growing up with it. And in their lifetime, that Mike Trout card may come to be known as the pinnacle of collecting. Who knows how much that card might auction for in the future.
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