[vthobby]

Originally Posted by Luke

If you're just looking at it in financial terms, you're basically just looking at a math problem. The question is, "How much of a $ value increase, do you need to get when SGC gives this card a grade of 2 or higher, in order to break even on all the times you spend $500 and they return the card in the PSA holder.

The equation looks like this:

Break even = (% of the time SGC does not grade the card a 2 or higher)(-$500) + (% of the time SGC grades card a 2 or higher)(x)

Where x equals the value increase needed in order to break even

You can play around with the % chance that SGC gives you a 2 or higher.

In my opinion, it's next to impossible that SGC would grade this card a 2 or higher. Not impossible, but close. So for me, I would say it's about a 2% chance. Here's the math for 2%:

0 = (.98)(-500) + (.02)(x)

0 = -490 + .02x

subtract -490 from each side:

490 = .02x

divide both sides by .02

x=24,500

So at a 2% chance of receiving a 2 or higher, you'd need the vlaue increase from your PSA 1.5 to the new SGC holder to $24,500 in order to break even on the bet you're making.

If you think there's a 5% chance, you need the value increase to be $9500

At a 10% chance, you need the value increase to be $4500

Also, it's not really $500. Probably closer to $600 after you pay postage and insurance twice.

In my opinion you should keep it as is, and it's not really close.

Damn Luke, that is appreciated! I'm convinced its staying in the PSA holder! Wow! Impressive! Thank you!

Mike