Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss
As for Packs' declaration that the market will fall out - I strongly disagree with respect to blue chip, prewar cards. There are a finite number of these cards, the scarcity/rarity is real (not manufactured), the players are long gone and their legacies set in stone, and they are names that transcend the sport: Ruth, Cobb, Jackson, Robinson, Mantle, Young, Wagner (mostly bc of T206), Aaron, Koufax. These names are Americana, not just prodigious hitters or pitchers. They have awards or candy bars named after them, there are movies and books about them, they are part of folklore, etc. Most importantly, this is the 5th decade that I have witnessed (1980-2020) where their cards are selling for more than the decade before. That is a great track record and one that I will invest in all day long.
|
I pretty much agree with this, and its why I think the current hobby is sort of really misaligned.
With the exception of Mike Trout, it seems insane to look at most all of the current MLB players, especially those under 30, and pay anything close to a huge premium for them. For the price you have to pay for a Tatis 1st Bowman auto, the price assumes hes going to become an all time great, a top 50ish player. It is kind of hard to assume any current player will do that until they have 10+ years of sustained performance. Even Trout is a good example, he has really struggled to stay healthy the last few years. He is going to go down as an all time great, but there is a lot of room between him already being HoF worthy, and him being in the same HoF ring as Mantle or Mays.
Nothing is going to happen to Ty Cobb or Matty or Cy Young at this point to change their legacies, and there are a finite number of their cards available. There is almost no world in which the price of a Red Cobb will decrease in the next 10 years, unless civilization literally falls apart.
A PSA 5 Red Cobb in a P350 back sold for $13,000 a few days ago. 2 years ago it sold for $5900. And I bet 5 years before that, it sold for about $2500. The growth may not be exponential like that in 2 years time, but unless someone discovers a box of thousands of pristine Red Cobbs in the future, the supply is not going to increase, but the demand likely will.