Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
I thought a pitcher's BABIP could be indicative of his ability to induce weak contact and therefore having a higher one than typical could indicate he was not pitching as well as before and not just random bad luck.
Anyhow I guess his bad luck just disappeared the day he was sent to Houston and his BIP then dropped by over .3 for the rest of the season. Just regression to the mean, inconsequential.
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Yes, it did. This happens all the time. He even got lucky in Houston. His HR% was half of what it normally is for him during those 10 starts. Anything can happen in 11 starts. It's just way too small of a sample size. Hell, nearly anything can happen even over the course of a full season too, let alone 11 games.
A pitcher's BABIP is almost entirely outside of his control. There are some who suggest that they may be able to exercise some minuscule amount of control over it, to the tune of a few points, but that's not an easy sell even at that. Either way, large fluctuations above and below the league average BABIP is indicative of a pitcher having gotten either lucky or unlucky that season. Just go look up your favorite 10 pitchers and look at their best and worst seasons with respect to their ERAs and WHIPs. You'll usually find that those were usually just seasons where every bounce or wind gust went their way (or failed to when their numbers were "bad"). Especially when there is a discrepancy between their ERA and their FIP.
If I want to know how well a pitcher performed, I look at the stats that are within their control.