If it was all dumb luck, then BABIP would, over the course of long careers, all come out about the same when you factor in the defense behind the pitcher. There would not be pitchers who have incredibly successful and long careers, not giving up many runs, while being contact instead of strikeout pitchers. It doesn’t.
If it’s all dumb luck, how are contact pitchers often just as successful as strikeout pitchers? Maddox and Randy Johnson put together similar total careers. Johnson’s BABIP is league average, Maddux, like most hall of fame contact pitchers, is well below it. They achieved similar ERA’s and total careers via very different methods, in huge sample sizes.
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