Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigdaddy
This is the same formula that the card manufacturers have been using for the last 20 or so years, except they were doing it with packs and inserts. Buy a pack and you get a chance to come away with a card worth 50-100x (or more) than what you paid for the pack.
Now set breakers are just following the same tried and true formula, but now targeting vintage collectors, who were previously untapped by the modern day schemes.
Enterprising organizations cashing in on our affinity for lottery type games.
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I have seen people doing these breaks for quite a while now, and have always realized that when it comes to modern breaks, it truly does seem to be nothing more than a type of gambling scheme and way to get people to pay more than what they may usually end up getting in value. That is because in this case, no one knows what they'll actually end up getting from one of these modern breaks, which is a true gambling scenario. And more often than not, the people taking part in these modern breaks are extremely lucky if they break even and get back in value cards that are actually worth at least what they paid for their spot.
But when it comes to breaking, raffling, razzing, whatever you want to call it, of a vintage set, you are talking an entirely different scenario because the people taking part in it usually know exactly what cards (and oftentimes in what condition) are in the set that they have a chance to get from the break. As mentioned by others, the party running the break will typically look at the supposed current value of such a set, and then simply divide by the number of cards in it to come up with the spot price or buy-in. And granted, the majority of people taking part in such a break will end up winning a card(s) not worth what they paid for them. But, unlike a modern case/box break where no one knows what, if any, valuable cards they may ultimately be able to win, everyone partaking in a vintage break knows right up front that there are going to be some big value cards that a few people are going to win that are worth a heck of a lot more than what they just paid for their spot in that vintage break.
Though some people have referred to this as a type of gambling scheme by the seller/party running the vintage break, the truth is, they really only end up selling the set for about what it should be worth. That doesn't particularly sound like some potentially undesirable scheme to me. Meanwhile, the people partaking in the break often have a chance to now win a particular card from that vintage set that may be some rare, valuable, rookie, superstar, HOFer, error, or other card they need/want for their collection, or to maybe just finish their own vintage set, that they otherwise couldn't afford to do because of the crazy rise in prices of some cards since the pandemic.
Quite a while back I had opined here on the forum how I could see such vintage breaks becoming an accepted, legitimate way for older collectors to finally start moving their collections as they got older and retired from the hobby and/or downsized or even decided to cash out completely. It could also be a great vehicle for families of collectors that pass away to be able to deal with the collections they are now left with, and turn that inheritance into cash as well. Most collectors don't have the resources to buy other peoples entire sets/collections, and the dealers that do are often going to lowball what they'll pay and look for the big collection/quantity discount they can turn into a profit for themselves. AHs typically only want the big cards, and when given lots of commons and such will simply group them in lots and not always do the best job for the collector or their family. And trying to sell off one's collection by yourself can be extremely time and energy consuming, as well as not always cheap given fees that can be incurred depending on the sales platforms/venues used. Plus, other benefits of selling off sets via a vintage break are that you collect the money up front. You don't have to wait for people that win an auction or buy off Ebay or elsewhere to finally get around to paying. And though you may remove the potential for a huge home run if you don't auction off your cards and get lucky to have a couple deep-pocketed whales start a bidding war over one of your cards, you minimize the possibly greater risk that many of your cards may underperform in an auction or other marketplace, and at least get to set your overall price at a fair market value.
So, I don't see these vintage breaks as necessarily being the supposed scams or schemes that others may refer to in regard to regular breakers and all the modern stuff they sell. In those, the breakers can sell spots and open tons of boxes or cases, with no one winning anything even remotely worth what they paid for their break/raffle/razzle spot. In a vintage break you are also going to have some people paying more than what they end up winning is worth, but you are also guaranteed to have some people end up winning some great and valuable cards they otherwise may not have been able to ever afford. And for many of us vintage set collectors, such vintage breaks may be the only true, reasonable way we may have to be able to ever finish some of these vintage sets we could have been working on for years, and otherwise may no longer be able to afford to complete.