Quote:
Originally Posted by Avardan
If I made any errors in my analysis, I'd like to know that as well, but not with flaming troll comments... those are so hurtful (LMAO).
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Since you asked, I think the big problem here is the repeated assumption that all cards are likely to be graded the same, which the entire rest is based on before you get to the uncut panels, leading to false conclusions.
Series 1 is heavily graded because it is littered with superstars. If one goes over the checklist for series 2 and series 3, there are a couple big name but mostly a dearth of anything but commons. Series 1 is stuffed with superstars and many of the other subjects are not commons, cards that are more popular for being minor stars or carrying a value more related to sequencing or picture (like Pafko and Zernial). It costs money to grade; the entire point of grading is to make money off the end result. The incentive to grade commons is much, much lower.
This is the same reason that series 6 doesn't look that rare in the grading analysis - high numbers are valuable cards, fairly expensive even in low grade and thus worth grading whereas they are not in previous series. The conclusion that "that there is no real scarcity that warrants their current market value" is not true. They exist in far lower quantity as anyone who has handled tons of these cards knows; but they are graded much more often precisely because they are tougher. You can see this in every set; look at the PSA population for Demmitt NY vs. Demitt St. Louis and you won't think Demmitt is all that tough. Is the easier card only twice as common? Not, not even remotely close. It's just expensive and thus worth grading more. The population of graded cards is an inherently biased sample towards $$$, not an unbiased count as you treat it.
"I don't believe there is a a significantly sized raw card pool to move the market, let alone affect the overall proportions of the graded population" is not true, for the same reasons. The comparison between Mantle and Mays to show that the highs are not really any tougher is heavily misleading - Mantle is a DP with 2x the quantity printed of all but 2 other of the highs and, again, while Mays is likely to be graded Mantle is even more likely to be graded as the biggest card in the post-war hobby and the most famous cash in.
"Total: 6220 raw cards readily available on the open market... maybe add 1000 from eBay and you can see there aren't very many remaining, let alone pristine examples that still need to be graded". I'm sorry, but there are a ton of ungraded 1952 Topps. The majority of 1952 Topps cards are not graded. The majority of pristine cards are graded, because that's where the cash is at, but you have gone far beyond the evidence to assert that the graded population is close enough to complete for all of the cards to use it as you have used it.