Quote:
Originally Posted by gunboat82
I'm not sure the fact that he was better at 40 is even anecdotal evidence of anything, or that it supports an inference of steroid use. MLB was testing for steroids after 2003, when Ortiz was not yet 30. It implemented HGH testing by 2013, when Ortiz was 37. While HGH testing was in place, he put up OPS+ seasons of 159, 141, 140, and 164.
To infer that Ortiz was using steroids or HGH to produce at a high level at age 40, you'd also have to infer that (1) MLB didn't test him, even though it was under heightened scrutiny at that point; (2) MLB tested him and he failed, but they buried the results because they liked him; or (3) MLB tested him but he somehow evaded detection.
To assume that Ortiz was juicing at age 40 because of a failed 2003 test (the accuracy of which has been disputed) is a logical leap. It's also a silly game to play when players like Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Bagwell get a pass because their names weren't included in that particular leak. Mike Piazza even admitted to knowingly using andro (an anabolic steroid) and greenies during his playing career, but he's often left out of these debates because he wasn't on the list. There are so many unknowns and double standards about who was caught for what and when, and who admitted to juicing before certain substances were formally banned. It seems like a fool's errand to draw a line in the sand and put players on one side or the other.
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I agree with your overall perspective, it seems self evident that for various reasons, users are excused or not detected, and the whole thing becomes a nighly imperfect, even biased exercise. As for Papi, though, there is surely at least some logic in saying someone who had better numbers at age 40 than he did at age 25 potentially was using. This is not a normal career trajectory. I did not mean to suggest it was conclusive, it isn't.