We are here:
I don't think you can say "sell' or "buy" based on any one thing...but just once I would like to see the "sell" warriors actually sell off their collections.
What concerns me is wealth concentration. The top 10 stocks by market cap in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the value of the market. The top 10% of Americans by wealth own 90% of all securities and account for 50% of all consumer spending. The S&P 500 is overvalued by historical measures. A downturn, perhaps an invidia or other Mag 10 company having a crappy quarter, ripples across a rather narrow constituency that plays an outsized role in discretionary spending and could generate a contraction in their spending that would push us into recession. That would certainly seem to be a big indicator to sell. On the other hand, various financial opinion makers are starting to look hard at alternative investments as hedges against a downturn, inflation, or both together. That might drive people used to spending big into cards and would increase prices for the best stuff. Candidly, we are all:
The real bottom line on all of it is that prices cycle and if you don't need to liquidate now there is no reason to think that prices are irreversibly up or down. If something exceeds what you are comfortable spending, don't buy it. Odds are you'll see it again.