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Judge DredThere have been some good points made regarding the future generation of collectors.
Very interesting thought about how the price of packs could influence whether a kid wants to be a collector or not. Then there are those video games and other choices kids have. This point indicates that the hobby needs a "feeder system" to bring new collectors to the advance stage of collecting. What makes a person take the leap? Who will the next generation of hobbyist include? It would be interesting to see a demographic study done on "new" and "old" collectors. What is the socio-economic, age and racial background of all collectors. It would be interesting to see such a breakdown.
I started collecting cardboard when I was about 12 or 13. By the time I was 16 I started collecting vintage material. I enjoyed the "new stuff" (Topps was about the only choice back then - I hope I didn't date myself) but I also wasn't absorbed in trying to get the "hot" insert or "rookie" cards. Back then nobody really placed a premium value on "first year" cards. I wasn't influenced by anyone. The evolution of the collecting process took its own course on me. I just happened to like TheOldStuff.
I figure that if the card hobby follows coin collecting then it was something that was self-induced. Basically the hobby placed itself into a self destruct mode a while back. I suppose we can thank Upper Deck, Donruss, Fleer, Topps and the rest for starting the downward spiral. Perhaps this will clear out all of the part time hobbyist that only collected because they thought that a rookie card or insert would always hold value. I believe we have something called supply/demand that typically determines values in a free market society. Let me see - Joe Schmuck paid $100 a piece for ungraded Griffey rookes a while back. Now they can't give the stuff away for $30 a card. Do I think Joe Schmuck will be a little disillusioned and perhaps say the heck with the hobby before ever exploring what the hobby is really about? You bet there are a lot of Joe Schmucks out there.
My guess is that the true vintage collectors will be a bit older than the average collector and I would venture to guess that the true vintage collector (TVC) is probably about had it with the price of cards these days. The only problem is that the TVC needs a "fix" now and then and will remain loyal to the hobby just out of the love for the cardboard. Then there are the working "professional class" collectors (doctors, lawyers, high salaried individuals) that bought into the hobby because they like it and also as an investment and possible hedge on inflation (the stock market still isn't where it was 4 years ago).
The next question is where will the next generation come from? With housing costs and the general cost of living reaching incredible highs in a lot of metro areas there might be fewer dollars to put into this hobby by the "next generation" of collectors.
Personally, I don't care - if the hobby goes to hell in a hand basket I will then be able to get more of my favorite vintage material at reasonable prices. For what it's worth, I'm not in this for the "investment" aspect, I'm in this because I enjoy those little pieces of cardboard. Let's keep this in perspective, unless you're a dealer you probably don't have a desire to sell off a collection. What you accumulate over the years is what probably brings enjoyment to you. It's nice to pull a card out of a box and look at it. From Anson to Cobb to Cravath to O'Doul to Ott to Williams to Mantle and Mays and so on. It's just fun to pull one out of the collection to look at the thing. Perhaps it's how you attained the card that you remember, maybe it's remembering the statistics of the player and wondering why he's not in the HOF and maybe, just maybe because you like the pose on the card or the way it looks.
I don't want to see the hobby die but on the other hand a correction in the proverbial "market" would be nice. We'll see what happens in the next decade. Prices are at an all time high and expendable cash is a concern for a lot of hobbyist these days. I'm a lousy economist and I wont try and predict what will happen to the card market because I don't have enough information to make that decision. I suppose we could all speculate a bit and see what happens.
Sorry for the long entry - I could go on but I'll end it here...