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Old 10-09-2007, 08:13 AM
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Default % of Graded Vintage Cards

Posted By: Eric Brehm

Ha ha very funny Fred. Obviously for 1987 Topps, 'Pop 1' doesn't equate to 'rarity', it means that only one has been submitted so far. There are of course millions of ungraded ones out there, and there always will be. And as JK points out, new submissions will be motivated by the possibility of getting a '10', which does carry significant value (despite the fact that PSA has bestowed this rating on over 3000 1987 Topps cards to date, including over 700 Bonds rookie cards).

Regarding pre-modern cards, I suspect that the population of graded cards from the 1950's and 1960's will continue to grow significantly over time, more so than will be the case for pre-war cards. In the case of 1933 Goudey cards, for example, I have done comparisons of population reports at about six month intervals; it appears that the rate of newly graded cards in the higher grades (NM or better) is on the order of one new high grade card, per card #, per year. (That is for grades 7 through 10 combined.) Though not insignificant, that is a relatively small influx of new high grade cards to the market. (And furthermore some of the increases in card populations are undoubtedly due to certain cards being cracked out and resubmitted, sometimes with a bump up in grade.) Seems to me that high grade pre-war cards that are considered low pop now, are likely to remain low pop cards for the forseeable future.

<edited for clarity>

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