'Tis a grand topic to kick around, even if I'm late to the kicking. The next card to reach a value of one hundred thousand dollars, whatever it finally is, will have to be something very special. Many of the replies have been pre-WWII, natch. I shall take a contrarian view, and select a postwar gem.
I believe the next 100K card should be one currently offered in Robert Edward Auctions. It is lot #853, the 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle in PSA 7 NEAR MINT. That card has enough compelling qualities to easily rate six figures. In fact, I believe it is worth well-ascending six figures, but I doubt at this moment there will be many who would take me seriously. I cannot blame them. If they only knew what I know about that card, they would vehemently agree with me.
Most collectors view the ultimate Mickey Mantle card as the 1952 Topps. I shall not say one derogatory thing about that fabulous card. It is indeed a dream card for many. However, here's the thing: when you ask what is going to be the next 100K, most of us are not going to be in the thin crowd that would go bonkers bidding that kind of money. A collector with that kind of dough to "blow" likely ALREADY has a nice '52 Topps Mick in his collection. What almost all of the high-end collectors do not own is a high-grade Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle, a very rare bird indeed.
Several years ago, I asked that grand ol' dealer, David Festberg, about the Stahl-Meyers. He replied, "oh, they're around." What he did not say was that they are around PSA/SGC Poor with a qualifier, Poor, or Fair. It is pretty hard to work up a lot of excitement for a card that usually comes pretty creased, stained on one or even both sides, and has a factory date code stamped on the front of the card, hopefully not on the player's face. You can find several of them on eBay, where they have sat listed for months on end. Where the highly regarded 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle has been written about and portrayed in the media many dozens of times, the Stahl-Meyers have not been featured even once in a hobby periodical.
It took me several years, but I wrote a three-part feature article on a trio of tough Mantles for Sports Collectors Digest. I submitted it in January of 2009. They seemed to like it. The first segment, on a 1962 JELL-O unfolded box of Mantle, appeared in SCD's National issue. The second covered the very elegant 1960 Post Cereal Mantle card that looks like an early 1900s cabinet, and appeared in SCD's first issue of 2010. The third segment was on the 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle. Albeitly, it was a long article, but I put a lot of worthwhile information and fun into it. For some reason, it never ran while T. S. O'Connell was the editor. I like T. S. though; I'm sure he had his reasons.
As beautiful as the Stahl-Meyers are, however, one might wonder why they have not been trumpeted. I found many did not know much about them. Even more revealing, those who did know did not wish to discuss what they knew. Most of these people were other collectors. Take a moment or two and reflect upon why they wished to remained closed mouth about them.
Then again, how often has the 1914 Baltimore News cards been written about? It was not even "discovered" until about the mid-1980s. Most collectors only care about one of Jack Dunn's babes anyway, a youngster named George Ruth. That Ruth has already reached, what was it, 517K? To be sure, those cards are by no means mainstream. A beautiful pre-war regional.
There are numerous arguments (discussions) sometimes over mainstream versus regionals. They're both important, of course. When it comes to values, sometimes I wonder if a lot of people would not know a diamond if they held it in their hand. But that statement smacks of "you must collect as I collect", and that is not what I am trying to project at all.
I really do not want to cause a disturbance here, but allow me to use another collectible hobby to illustrate. Most car nuts dream of having a beautifully restored 55 or 57 Chevy or a late 60s Camaro. Yet at a major auction such as Barratt-Jackson, when an all-American dream machine concept car gets rolled to the platform, the crowd begins to gush, "look at that car", "what IS that?!", "I've only seen a picture of that once in a book or magazine". Then a small group of newer bidders start to push the bid to one million, then 2, 2.5, and 3 million dollars and more! It can get just as wild for a vintage Ferrari or Alfa-Romeo, particularly if it was raced by a legendary driver, or won a great race.
Let's go back to The Great Depression for a moment. One of the cars that still brings high dollars are the exotic Duesenbergs. I have been to the wonderful Auburn-Cord-Duesenberg Museum in Auburn, Indiana. They have several key examples of Duesenberg's marvelous craftsmanship. Beside each car is a placard with the date and model of the car, as well as the original price. You would be amazed at the price Duesenberg charged for some of its exotic masterpieces, anywhere from twelve to a little over fifteen thousand dollars! During the 1933 World's Fair in Chicago, at the same time as the first baseball All-Star game, the featured exhibit at the car pavillion was a Duesenberg with a body by Rollston. It was called the Rollston Twenty Grand. To think during this wretched horrible time in our country's history, several hundred people were able to and did spend 12K to 20K for a car, when the typical sedan ran about a grand, give or take a few hundred. Though the Depression eventually took down the company, some of the greatest cars in our country's history were built during some of the roughest years. None of these were mainstream cars. Maybe that's a reason why a Duesenberg was and still is so highly sought.
To the point, mainstream trading cards are like Fords, Chevys, and Chryslers. Topps test issues and rare regionals are like Duesenbergs, one-of-one concept cars, and very rare racing Ferraris. Of course, Ferraris and Duesenbergs have been written about since the day they were made. Regionals and test issues are tough to research and write about, especially when most people will not divulge what they know.
I must backpeddle a bit. By and large, the rare regionals are undervalued, but some have hit some pretty high numbers already. Let me just end where I began and say that the next card to hit one hundred thousand dollars should be that fabulous 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle in PSA 7. What a display piece. What a crowd stopper. What a conversation piece.
I know I could be accused of having a genuine conflict of interest since I do own one of those Mantles. Mine is very, very nice. It is also three full grades below this one. At least I know what I am talking about, and I think I've owned mine longer than the consignor of the one in REA. They are indeed fascinating cards. Wish I could fight to upgrade mine, but I'm quite content with the one I have. Mine moves me very deeply every time I look at it. No doubt it was tough for the consignor to part with that card.
More than enough said. Sorry.
Brian Powell