Quote:
Originally Posted by barrysloate
T206 rare backs have been in demand for as long as I've been in the hobby. There was never a time that collectors didn't go after them. Despite that, I've seen them rise and fall over the years. It will probably happen again. That's just the way the "Cycle" works.
|
In terms of rare backs of common players, I think Barry hit the nail right on the head. Thanks to the writings of Q. David Bowers in the coin field, the phenomena of cycles became well known. When the item in question is at least in the scarce to very scarce realm, however, even at the end of the cycle, when the value has drifted back downward, it usually ends up higher than when the up cycle started. This will likely be the case with even the rare backs of common T206'ers, in light of the very large number of people who collect T206.
On the other hand, if we're talking very rare backs of upper echelon HOF'ers like Cobb, Johnson, Mathewson, etc., these may well be less subject to the cycling phenomena, at least in terms of the magnitude of the up and down swings. Demand will remain very, very high, and nearly constant, with little lull in the action. Much of the demand will derive from true collectors, who will give such cards very good homes for many, many years, thereby reducing the available supply drastically, while, for the truly rare ones, doing little to satisfy still overwhelming demand. I believe these cards are still emerging in our hobby, and will continue to appreciate as highly valued collectibles do, at a compound rate of interest that will make their values seem truly amazing several decades from now.
I watched a new episode of "Chasing Classic Cars" last night (that I had previously recorded) which featured a 1967 Ferrari Luzzo that a then 41-year-old man had purchased new in Italy in that year for $4,500. Tack on another $1,000 for shipping it to the U.S., and his initial investment was $5500. The show's host/star, Wayne Carini, indicated that there were only 300-some made, and that the car's current value, after undergoing only a moderate restoration (the car was in very nice original shape) would be in the $700,000 to $800,000 range. That reflects a compound interest rate of appreciation of around 11%. The mega-stars of the T206's are the "Ferrari's" of card collecting, and I would expect the best of the best players, coupled with the rarest backs available, to do quite well over time, with perhaps little of the cycling effect (see the M-101 Ruth rookie for an analogous example, which has been on a nearly constant rise since at least the very early '90's).
Great post and best regards Leon,
Larry