ctownboy,
You've really put a lot of thought into possible scenarios that could cause the card market to fall. However, you can develop hypothetical scenarios that would provide logical arguments for the bubble-burst effect for any investment vehicle (stocks, real estate, bonds, etc). Fluctuations will continue in all market segments. That is why it is highly recommended that one have diversified investment holdings. Collectibles can be a valuable part of a balanced portfolio. Being overweighted in any one investment category increases one's level of risk.
Concerning baseball cards, a good rule of thumb is that if you have so much money tied up in little pieces of cardboard that it makes your uneasy all day and keeps you awake at night, you probably need to pare down your collection a bit. The same would go for any holding.
Fortunately, baseball's following continues to expand. Just because a certain segment of the population does not seem interested in collecting cards today, does not mean that the hobby is doomed in the long-term. On the contrary, the "collecting" gene is likely to remain strong in the population of future generations. Baseball fans who are fortunate to have a generous supply of disposable income will continue to pour new dollars into our favorite hobby. They may not be in a financial position to do so until their 30s, 40s or beyond, but the vintage market is really driven the 30+ age group anyway.
My greatest fear is the potential failing of paper, not cardboard. With the US government racking up debt levels in the trillions, the risk of a dollar collapse followed by runaway inflation may be a more likely scenario than a baseball card bubble. Cash is king, except during times of hyper-inflation --- then it's better to have the cash invested vs. in the bank, CDs, or the mattress.
That's the fear that keeps me up at nights...that inflation may hit so hard one day that I might not be able to afford to keep adding prize cards to my vintage collection.
Anyway, Happy New Year (...and Happy Collecting)!
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