Quote:
Originally Posted by Topps206
Oliva just missed, so did Allen, and I was appalled that Allen was that short.
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We seem to agree on several points.
I don't know what it is...something intangible, perhaps. But when I hear a player's name in discussions like this one, I immediately think to myself "Hall of Famer", or "not a Hall of Famer". There are instances where I'm on the fence, and I will use things like statistics, Awards won, MVP/Cy Young vote history to finalize my opinion. But for the most part, it's an overall opinion of a player built over the years. And, I've found that statistics seem to support my opinion.
Jack Morris, to me, is not a Hall of Famer. While he's had several big games, including a couple in the post season, when I consider his body of work taken as a whole, in my opinion, I just don't think the argument for his inclusion is strong enough. Yes, he won over 250 games. Yes, he had five top five Cy Young finishes. He won 20 games three times. But was he ever a truly elite pitcher? His career ERA of 3.90 is really hard to overlook.
His career
ERA + is 105. I ran a report on baseball reference for all pitchers (from 1901 to 2015), not currently in the Hall of Fame, that have thrown over 2,000 innings in their career.
Jack Morris's ERA + ranks him 176th on this list of 320 pitchers (I used ten seasons at an average of 200 innings pitched as my basis). That being said, Jack Morris isn't even in the top half of all pitchers that qualify. He's behind Johnny Podres, Mike Witt, Tim Wakefield and Danny Darwin. Using ERA + alone may be an oversimplification of a much more complex discussion, but that's the smell test for me. And Morris doesn't come out of this comparison smelling like a rose.
Now, to Dick Allen. Let me say that, in my opinion, Dick Allen's omission from Cooperstown is one of the most glaring in the history of the sport. Again, one metric comparison may be an oversimplification, but in this instance, the results are eye opening.
I ran a report of all hitters with 5,000 or more career at bats, who were not currently in the Hall of Fame. The comparative metric here is career OPS +.
Dick Allen has the fourth highest OPS + of all hitters meeting these requirements.
Barry Bonds 182
Mark McGwire 163
Albert Pujols 159
Dick Allen 156
Miguel Cabrera 155
Manny Ramirez 154
Allen's career OPS + is higher than that of Miguel Cabrera, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Edgar Martinez, Lance Berkman, Albert Belle, Alex Rodriguez and Mike Piazza. Most of these guys are getting serious consideration for induction.
When I include Hall of Famers in the report,
Allen's OPS + is sixteenth all-time. Allen's career OPS + is one point higher than that of Hank Aaron, Joe DiMaggio and Mel Ott. Allen has the same career OPS as Willie Mays and Frank Thomas. His OPS + is one point lower than Tris Speaker, two points lower than Hank Greenberg and Johnny Mize, and three points lower than that of Stan Musial.
How the hell is Allen not in the Hall? The guy was simply one of the greatest sluggers to ever play the game.