Quote:
Originally Posted by BradW
My current philosophy is to attempt to build in a PSA 5-6 (obviously will need to settle for a lot less on a handle full of key cards). I’ve seen on this forum and agree that a well-centered 5 presents very nicely. In the last 2 months I’ve compiled 30 commons (including a few high numbers). Most significant card so far is Herman Wehmeir (red back) in PSA 6 from the Greg Morris auction the other night - cannot wait to get that one in hand.
I’m interested in what others think of what seems like very quick inflation on the prices of the non-Mantle stars (Robinson, Mays, Mathews, Campanella, Wilhelm) in lower grades 2-5. I’d like to pick-up at least one or two of these in the short term to feel a real sense of commitment to the set and a bit of accomplishment. I’m not looking at this as an investment so not concerned with that, but because I am viewing this as a longer term (at least a few year) project I don’t want to rush into buying something if the prices are close to the top of a bubble. The commons and minor stars seem to be fairly consistent on pricing to me so I am going to keep plugging away on those now.
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Jackie and Mays have led the way during covid. Low grade ones have tripled in price; when I started last February, I remember noticing that Willie was extremely easy. You had your pick of the litter for a $1000 grade 2. Now if I were starting out, I'd focus on a PSA 4 or 5. Those are a much better value now, as all the new quarantine set collectors have pushed up the lowest grade key cards just to "have the set" as cheaply as possible. Not just in some of the '52, but all over quality vintage during this time.
The other huge cards/other HOFers/high numbers have done about as well as other top of the line vintage (up around 40-80%). And like you mentioned, the minors (except for Minoso and Doby) and commons haven't moved much.
As far as "bubble" talk, naturally it's impossible to time as well as many think. Just like during the junk wax boom, most post-war baseball vintage hasn't exploded like many other bubble-ish items from the modern or other sports worlds. And when things eventually burst in those other areas, that vintage probably won't get hurt nearly as badly on the downside either.
But the thing is, starting out with the '52 now is still awful tough, cause it's so damn expensive that even the "non-bubble" gains have really taxed the bottom line of buying now. You'll have to be very price-conscious and patient (and have your really long-term view) to navigate the possible current pitfalls well enough.