Originally Posted by HistoricNewspapers
Growth. There are 1.8 billion more people in the world today compared to the year 2000. That is a lot of new customers for the world's commodities. It will only grow from there.
Sports cards are more of a niche area compared to the overall economy, but vintage sports cards have a very set supply, so even a small increase in collectors can have a huge impact. However, new cards do come out every year, so the taste of the collectors play a big part.
There are 1,500 PSA graded Willie Mays rookies, and one can guess that there are probably another 2,500 in other holders or raw. That is not a lot of supply.
1. How many of the billions of new people in the world will add to the buyers of sports cards? Will they replace the dying collectors at a higher or lower rate?
2. Society preferences. How many of the recent covid collectors will stay? Can it go "viral" with so many people promoting their cards and $$$ via social media and internet?
3. Civil War or WW3. There is always that...then all bets are off.
4,000 Willie Mays rookies to buy. If only 15,000 new serious collectors emerge from those above possibilities...man, think about that.
Looking at the overall picture, I personally think the market will only go up overall, but not without some hills and valleys.
The battle will be within the market, not the market itself. Shiny vs vintage. Stars vs sets. High grade vs collector grade. Etc..
I would not underestimate the current group of kids. This is anecdotal, but in the mid 80's in middle school, there weren't many card collectors in school...just a few in each grade. By college, I was one of two people in my sphere who had collected cards and I was an athlete. Collecting by kids wasn't as dense as it is made out to be. It was certainly wide spread, but it wasn't like everyone was doing it.
You would be surprised right now with the kids. They know their sports. It isn't just modern either. We had some informal trivia the other day at school and they know the players. They are always wearing pro jerseys and stuff.
They are into cards too. In just the last month alone I've been involved in three baseball card conversations with kids, brought up by them.
One kid brought his moms cards to school. I commented on his Frank Thomas card.
Another teacher and a group of kids were talking cards, and the teacher mentioned the "game" that was on the back of the cards. He couldn't remember which year it was. I told him it was 1978 Topps. He was talking with a few kids about cards and he was telling them to keep them in good condition.
Another 3rd grade kid brought an autographed ball and asked me if I knew the signature. I looked at it, and I said "Fergie Jenkins." He looked at another kid with a look of "I told you so."
Kids haven't changed, contrary to popular belief. We change. I remember my first year teaching how a couple of teachers were talking about "today's kids," having changed, and that was in 1994. Then 25 years later a couple of younger teachers are saying the same about "today's kids." I laughed inside my head because 25 years ago THEY were the generation being talked about.
They are just as kind, silly, sneaky, and brutally honest as we all were when we were kids. As much of a disconnect that older generations look at them now, they are the same, and they will mostly connect to their childhood as a time of fondness and look back at the time when 'life was good'. There will be a sentiment for them as there is for us now. I even see it with my own oldest kids how they look back at some of the shows on Disney Channel and how "there aren't shows like that anymore on TV".
The future is good. Now if social media would just stick to cards instead of the constant strife we always see...
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