[glchen]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

There is no doubt this is a new concept and time will tell how it plays out. The client who first brought this to my a attention few years back through the art world so far has seen some solid results. What has happened there is as they create new issues it forces the the investment group to go out and find new pieces of art and thus driving up the value of the existing supply. As they can showcase that the value of the art they have already purchased has gone up it attracts new interest. I believe the same will hold true here. One of the primary reasons people want into cards so bad right now is they have done well. When guys like Justin Beiber are "flexing" their Pokemon collections on Instagram it makes others want them too. This in my view is why Gary V has had such an impact on the card market. I only keep up with a few people in the hobby and one used to post here and he has sold cards direcly to NBA players and has others contacting him on IG (Instagram) saying they want in.

I think the comparison to the USO is a poor one because it is not an apples to apples comparison. In this case one can call the Mantle 10 a commodity I suppose but there is only one other direct substitute and no futures market to artificially positively or negatively impact the market. The reason the USO did so poorly is two fold. One as they take in assets they must buy more futures contracts and can have a significant impact on the market as they put those funds to work essentially becoming the market and two those ETF structures have to buy front month oil futures contracts where there is generally a time value premium embedded. The oil futures market is generally in contango which is what destroys an ETF like this ones performance. The only time you have a positive role is when it is in backwardation meaning the current oil spot price is higher than the futures market. For example if oil is currently at $40 and the following month futures contact is $38 you experience no negative role and so the underlying value of the ETF structure doesn't deteriorate. Most of the time the market is in contango where you have an upward sloping futures curve and so as time goes by the premium gets drained out of the front month contract as it comes closer to the spot price and the ETF will lose value and then must start the process all over again. This is why if you look at the VXX a popular trading vehicle to attempt to trade the VIX you will be losing money every month if the VIX stays flat. The front month futures contract has at least a 7% premium so over the course of 12 months it will naturally shed at least 84% of its value unless the VIX rises. Hence why it has had numerous reverse splits. These are very complex vehicles and most when purchasing them don't realize what they are up against.

Thanks for the input, David. You definitely know ETFs much more than I do. How about the other red flags I brought up? You really don’t see significant risk there even in a down market?

Frankly, I think cards still have more room to run because I think it will eventually replace coin collecting as the top hobby with all of the news happening on ESPN and so forth. However, the greed that led to the 80s/90s bust can always repeat itself so folks should be wary.

I don’t collect cards purely for investment. It’s a hobby that’s fun and not one that I’m trying to beat the stock market on returns. However, I prefer that after I sell my cards, I can at least break even especially after the 15-25% in seller fees on eBay or at an auction house. And if I come away with more money to buy more cards, all the better. However, I really like having the card in hand. If it can’t hold the card anymore, it’s not a hobby anymore. It’s pure investment. So something like this needs to be looked at in purely those terms.