Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyruscobb
Simple economics control card prices. Supply and demand set the market price. We’ve had a bull market for over a decade. This prosperity time has increased 401k values and disposable income. Investors and collectors have used this disposable income to purchase cards. This strong demand for cards has increased prices.
If we are entering a recession, 401k values will fall. Moreover, some people will lose their jobs. Those that do not have jobs will not have disposable income to spend on cards. Those that do not lose their jobs will save for a rainy day in case they lose their jobs. They will choose not to spend their disposable income on cards.
The demand will significantly decrease. When this occurs, the prices will fall. Those that have large inventories (supply) have two options. One: they can stop selling and try to ride out the storm. However, who knows how long the recession could last. It could take years for a recession to play out and then years for the prices to return to pre-recession levels. Two: they can sell into the weak demand at lower prices.
Basic economic laws disagree with your premise that higher prices will prevail. Good luck.
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If one thinks this destroys the economy and it takes us years to get back on track then in that scenario it certainly could hurt card values.
So much of card values depends on who is buying and who owns the cards. Using only macro trends to predict these micro trends are impossible.
I have only been active online since 2010 and there has been no shortage of reasons as to why the card market was going to get hit. It has somehow prevailed and third party graders are backed up as far as the eye can see.
I am in finance and I am seeing first hand the damage that is being done to asset prices in real time. Then I flip over to EBAY and look at the nearly 8,000 auctions that PWCC has running right now and I can't see a similar scenario in real time.
What got me more interested in cards and diverting a large percentage of my disposable income in late 2009 and in subsequent years was how quickly I watched money evaporate trading options then. I liked the concept that even if I was wrong it wasn't going to zero.
There are many of us who have been working on our collections for a long time and quite frankly during environments like this it makes me happy I own it even more.