Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
I would think at 10 years you could do better than 50 percent?
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Maybe 50% is too low...but it's certainly not all that close to 100%. I bet we could do some analysis, but it'd be a lot of research.
A few names that jump out as "people thought they were in at 10 years" might include Mattingly, Garvey, Murphy, Joe Carter, Albert Belle, and a whole buncha steroids guys that probably skew the results and should be ignored.
On the other side of the coin, I think of guys already in like Eck, Lee Smith, and of course Harold Baines (maybe we should ignore that one too), and future likely inductees like Billy Wagner, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Beltran.
An example with a couple guys named Adrian- at 10 years into their careers, you'd think Adrian Gonzalez was a likely hall of famer, and Adrian Beltre nowhere near a HOFer.