Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike D.
I bet...it really goes to show that it takes a while to really know. If you were to try to pick from all the rookies in a given time period which would be hall of famers, you'd probably not be very close (Todd Van Poppel, Bryan Taylor)
If you go a few more years, the numbers get better but a lot of misses still (Gooden, Eric Davis).
It's only after 10 years you'd probably hit on 50% (Mattingly), and 15+ years when guys are "sure things". It's a marathon, not a sprint!
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My criteria skewed it more towards established players, and not many rookies.
I was figuring the "rookie" thing would go away once people realized that things were way past the stage where more of them got tossed when a kids collection got dumped by Mom.
So hardly any rookies unless I just happened to end up with them.
If I remember right, I was WAY under 50%.