[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

It is impossible for every person who speculates on cards from any era to all win. I think your point is well taken and this guy is a baseball fanatic so his chances are immensely better than the person just playing momentum. He does research and really attempts to understand the players fundamentals on the field and lets that drive his speculative activity. Just like stocks you have to sell. So this means you will miss out on some monster gains and you must get comfortable with that. This is a major headwind for the participants chances of success as outliers can make it appear that ones ability to consistently be right is much better than it really is so if you get an outlier on the way down you can be toast. For the most part every hot card is better to be sold into the hype and fast thin markets push a few sales much further than can be sustained in a short window of time and in many cases permanently so most of the time you should take the money. Some of the moves have been simply incredible. Jeremy Lin was an obvious sell! Probably a ton of others could be named.

Here's a list I just found of 2007-2009 top 10 prospects obviously from people who know a lot, Baseball America. How would you have done betting on these fellas? It looks to me like more bust than boom but don't know.

2007
1.Daisuke Matsuzaka
2.Alex Gordon
3.Delmon Young
4.Phil Hughes
5.Homer Bailey
6.Cameron Maybin
7.Evan Longoria
8.Brandon Wood
9.Justin Upton
10.Andrew Miller

2008
1.Jay Bruce
2.Evan Longoria
3.Joba Chamberlain
4.Clay Buchholz
5.Colby Rasmus
6.Cameron Maybin
7.Clayton Kershaw
8.Franklin Morales
9.Homer Bailey
10.David Price

2009
1.Matt Wieters
2.David Price
3.Colby Rasmus
4.Tommy Hanson
5.Jason Heyward
6.Travis Snider
7.Brett Anderson
8.Cameron Maybin
9.Madison Bumgarner
10.Neftali Feliz