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Old 08-28-2016, 12:15 AM
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Bill Gregory
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Location: Flower Mound, Texas
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I understand Trout is a phenomenal player. But when I compare players side by side, and I see such an enormous difference in something like oWAR, I don't get it.

Compare Mike Trout and Ryan Braun...just their offense, this season.

oWAR (offensive WAR)

Mike Trout 7.8
Ryan Braun 3.5

Ok, Braun is a right fielder. Trout's a center fielder. Obviously, Trout is worth more putting up the numbers he is as a center fielder, a premium position. But is he worth more than double Braun's season with the bat? 4.3 more wins?

Here are their numbers:

Trout .314 AVG, 541 PAs, 27 2B, 3 3B, 24 HR, 21 SB, 4 CS (84%), 99 BB, 109 K, slash line of .431/.551/.981. 244 TB, 170 OPS +
Braun .318 AVG, 449 PAs, 21 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 14 SB, 3 CS (82%), 38 BB, 74 K, slash line of .379/.557/.935. 226 TB, 145 OPS +

Their SLG is comparable; Braun is ahead by 6 points. The main difference is Trout walks more, so his OBP is 52 points higher. But he also strikes out more (25% vs 18%).

Trout should have a higher oWAR, absolutely. But show me where he's worth double what Ryan Braun is at the plate? That makes absolutely no sense to me. Braun came into the night 4th in the National League in batting, seventh in SLG, and 5th in OPS.

Trout has a career .960 OPS right now. At the same point in his career, Braun had a .943 OPS.

Compare Trout's 2013 season, where he had a 10.0 oWAR, to Ryan Braun's 2011 MVP season:

Trout: .323 AVG, 39 2B, 9 3B, 27 HR, 33 SB, 7 CS (82.5%), 110 BB, 136 K, slash line of .432/.557/.988. 328 TB, 179 OPS +.
Braun: .332 AVG, 38 2B, 6 3B, 33 HR, 33 SB, 6 CS (84.6%), 58 BB, 93 K, slash line of .397/.597/.994. 336 TB, 166 OPS +.

Braun's oWAR in 2011? 7.4. Again, Trout has a higher OBP (35 points), but Braun's SLG is 40 points higher, and his OPS is 6 points higher. They have the same number of stolen bases (Braun with a slightly better percentage). Since this doesn't account for defense, show me where Mike Trout, as an offensive player, was a better offensive performer....by 35%?? Again, he's providing offense as a center fielder, where Braun is a left fielder in 2011. But Trout's contribution as a center fielder is 33% more valuable? Celoknob referenced that OPS is more predictive of wins added than other metrics like OBP alone. Braun had a higher OPS in his MVP season than Trout did in 2013, yet, after positional adjustments, Trout's a 35% more valuable offensive performer? I do think there should be bonuses given to center fielders, catchers, second basemen and shortstops. But the idea that, left fielders, right fielders, first basemen and third basemen should then also be penalized for the positions they play seems incongruous to me. You've already rewarded a guy playing a premium position for the offense they provide. Why, then, penalize a player for filling one of the other positions?
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Last edited by the 'stache; 08-28-2016 at 12:24 AM.
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