Quote:
Originally Posted by bnorth
My post is about if Jeter is a HOFer or not. You say also say he is.
Larry Walker has not been voted in for very good reasons and should not get voted in this year. Unless they changed the name to Hall of Above Average.
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I know what your post said. I was demonstrating how absurd your thinking is. You say Derek Jeter is a slam dunk Hall of Famer, and anybody not voting for him is a moron, right? Yet Larry Walker is "above average", and not worthy of induction. More on how ridiculous that is below.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bnorth
A lot of players did some great things a few times. That does not make them a HOFer. Bill Madlock won 4 batting titles does that make him a HOFer?
Larry had 2160 hits, 383 home runs, 1311, RBIs and a .313 batting average. If those are HOF #s there should be a LOT more people in the HOF than there is now.
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Well, then, I guess Joe DiMaggio shouldn't be in.
.325 AVG, 2,214 hits, 361 HR, 1,537 RBI.
Might as well boot Hank Greenberg out.
.313 AVG, 1,628 hits, 331 HR, 1,274 RBI.
Hasta la vista, Johnny Mize
.312 AVG, 2,011 hits, 359 HR, 1,337 RBI.
Your thinking is so beyond old, it's comical. Hits, home runs? Really? You do know it's the year 2020, and we have far better methodology to evaluate a player's greatness than counting stats, right?
What exactly did Derek Jeter do that was "great"????
It wasn't hit for power. 260 home runs in 12,602 PAs is pretty weak for the era he played in, even for a shortstop. Nomar Garciaparra was a shortstop, in the same era, and had far greater power.
Jeter 260 HR in 12,602 PA. A homer once every 48.7 PAs.
Garciaparra 229 HR in 6,116 PA. A homer once every 26.7 PA.
Do I need to bring Alex Rodriguez's power numbers into the conversation? No?
Jeter was an average power hitter as far as home runs go. At best, and that's being kind. 15 home runs per 162 games, when he averages 743 PAs per season, is actually pretty terrible. But surely he made up for it with other extra base hits, right? Doubles and triples must be where he added power to his game. After all, he had that speed.
Oh wait, nope. 544 doubles, 66 triples.
There are 26 players with over 3,000 hits since 1919. Jeter's 8th in plate appearances, but 17th in doubles, and 16th in triples. He's 20th of those 26 players in extra base hits, and the guys behind him all have at least 1,400 fewer plate appearances.
Modern era 3,000 hit club members, sorted by singles.
The only modern hitter with over 3,000 hits that had more singles than Jeter's 2,595 is Peter Rose. Rose had 3,288 more plate appearances. So, Jeter had no power. Zero. The great "no brainer first ballot Hall of Famer" was a dink hitter.
What about his walk rate? Surely, if Jeter wasn't loading up on the extra base hits, he was walking, right?
Ah, no.
Modern era 3,000 hit club members sorted by walk rate.
Jeter is 20th of the 26 Modern era 3,000 hit club members in walk rate.
He didn't hit for power, not home runs, or extra base hits.
He didn't walk.
Where's the incontrovertible evidence of Jeter's "greatness". Anybody that dares consider not voting the great Jeter in immediately is a moron.
The numbers would seem to suggest that he's a bit over hyped.
He played 20 seasons. 18 of those would be considered full years; in all he appeared in at least 119 games. That's about 75%.
He led the American League in hits twice, and runs once. Well, considering where he batted in the lineup, and the offense he was a part of, I don't know if either of those are at all impressive. In 1999, he led the AL with 219 hits. He also led the AL with 739 PAs. Of those 739 PAs, 677 were from the #2 spot in the order. He hit great that year-a .349 AVG, and had 70 extra base hits, which for Jeter is like having 100. He also had 91 walks, which is by far his career high (by 14). Jeter's OPS+ was 153, with an OPS of .989. He'd never even approach that OPS again. Forget 2006, when he was MVP runner up. 1999 was his best season, with an 8.0 WAR. That was an MVP-type season. That, and his 1998 season, with a 7.5 WAR, are the only two MVP-type seasons Jeter ever had. He only had one other season with even a 6.0 WAR--6.6 in 2009.
In 2012, he led the AL with 216 hits. He had 740 PAs, walking a paltry 45 times. He hit .316 that year, which is pretty good. But of those 216 hits, only 47 were extra base hits. 32 doubles, 15 home runs.
He never led his league in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS. Only had one season of 40 or more doubles. Three seasons with even 20 home runs.
Jeter was a 115 career hitter by OPS. 15% above average. He was a poor fielder. A 115 OPS + doesn't get you into the Hall of Fame. And hitting was his calling card.
His career highs for OPS+
1999 153
2006 132
2000 128
1998 127
2003, 2005, 2009 125
His last seven seasons, 2008-2014, representing 912 games and 4,177 plate appearances, Derek Jeter was a league average hitter with a 101 OPS+.
He got 1,109 of his hits in those seven seasons. He was never good defensively, and was as middle of the road as you can get as a hitter.
Year, number of games played, OPS+
2008, 150, 102 OPS+
2009, 153, 125 OPS+
2010, 157, 90 OPS+
2011, 131, 100 OPS+
2012, 159, 114 OPS+
2013, 17, 52 OPS+
2014, 145, 76 OPS+
Derek Jeter, save for 2009, when he was 25% above league average, and 14% above league average in 2012, was a league average, or below league average hitter.
His last seven seasons, he was worth a combined 14.4 WAR across 912 games. That's 5.63 162 game seasons. He was worth, on average, 2.55 WAR per 162 games played. That's barely Major League starter-worthy.
Jeter hung on, and the Yankees let him, when he was way past his prime, so he could get his 3,000 hits. Jeter for roughly the last 1,000 games of his career was a stat padder.
The only reason he's in is because he got 3,000 hits, and he's "Derek Jeter". Don't give me this shit about how Derek Jeter is a no brainer Hall of Famer. He had two great seasons in 18.
A 5.0+ WAR is considered All Star level. Jeter, in 18 years, only had 6 that were truly All Star level (per BBR):
1999 8.0
1998 7.5
2009 6.6
2006 5.6
2001 5.2
1997 5.0
That's it.
2000 4.6 fringe All Star-level
2004 4.2
Ten full seasons Derek Jeter came in below a 4.0 WAR
This is a no-brainer Hall of Famer? He's beyond even question?
WAR isn't a perfect metric, but for a discussion of this kind, to compare Hall of Famer performance against other Hall of Famers, it's a great tool.
I looked at all Hall of Fame position players starting in 1945. Jeter isn't playing in 2020, so this is, essentially, a snapshot of all Hall of Fame position players from the past 75 years. For a few of these guys that started their careers prior to 1945 (Ted Williams, Enos Slaughter, etc), I used their entire career WAR and games played. Other Hall of Famers, like Joe DiMaggio, did play after 1945, but the majority of their careers came before the end of World War II.
This gives us 73 Hall of Famers. I created an average, games played per WAR. Expressed differently, how many games did it take that player to be worth one win above a replacement-level player?
I then did the same calculation for Jeter, and added him to the list.
This "no brainer, you'd have to be "a moron not to vote for him" was 52nd out of 74 Hall of Famers on this list.
Then, just for shits and giggles, I looked at where Larry Walker, you know, the guy that belongs in the "Hall of Above Average", would fit on this list.
1,988 games played
72.7 career WAR
Rate: 27.3452544
He would be 14th on this list of 74 players. Directly ahead of Rickey Henderson, Johnny Bench, Chipper Jones.
The only guys that were worth 1 win over replacement at a faster rate on this list: Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Jackie Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Eddie Mathews, Roberto Clemente, Frank Robinson, Joe Morgan, Wade Boggs and Jeff Bagwell.
But yeah. Derek Jeter is a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer, and Larry Walker's not even worthy of being in Cooperstown.
From 1994 to 2004, 11 seasons, Larry Walker had a 1.036 OPS, hitting .331 with a slash line of .422 OBP/.614 SLG/1.036.
For those 11 years, his OPS+ was 148.
Derek Jeter's best year ever by OPS + was 153. His second best was 132.
Larry Walker, for 11 years, was nearly the offensive force that Derek Jeter was for his best year.
Walker's career 141 OPS+ is better than Vladimir Guerrero's. Better than Alex Rodriguez's. Better than Duke Snider's. Better than Reggie Jackson's. Better than Chuck Klein's. Better than Ken Griffey Jr's. Better than Al Kaline's.
And that "Hall of Above average" comment? You're either being purposely disingenuous, you're hopelessly obtuse, or, you're just plain ignorant as to baseball history. Larry Walker is a little better than "above average".
In the history of Major League Baseball, there have been 12 men to finish their careers with a lifetime .310 AVG, 350 home runs and 1,000 RBI.
Larry Walker is one of those men.
Larry Walker was a better player than Derek Jeter, in every single facet of the game. Jeter rode his .310 lifetime average, and 11,195 career at bats, to 3,000 hits and Cooperstown, even when, for the last seven years of his career, he was league average as a hitter and dreadful as a defensive shortstop. Does a "great teammate" make his team carry him for seven seasons?
And Walker was a lifetime .313 hitter. The one thing that Jeter did truly well--hit the ball safely--Larry Walker did better!
Walker walked 913 times in 8,030 career PAs. An 11.37% rate
Jeter walked 1,082 times in 12,602 career PA. An 8.6% rate.
Jeter had 870 career extra base hits in 11,195 at bats.
Walker had 916 career extra base hits in 6,907 at bats.
Fielding?
Jeter 5 Gold Gloves
Walker 7 Gold Gloves
There is no argument to be made that Derek Jeter was a better player than Larry Walker. None. Jeter played a lot longer, so he got 3,000 hits when any other team would have dumped him after a God awful 2010 where he was worth 1.7 WAR. But Jeter had 2,926 hits, and everybody loved "Jetah".
Unfortunately for Walker, he didn't get to wear the pinstripes, and play on a loaded Yankees team. Unlike Jeter, Walker had the good sense to retire before he embarrassed himself.
Walker's last two seasons in the Majors:
2004 (age 37): 82 games, .298 AVG, 17 HR, 47 RBI .424 OBP/.589 SLG/1.013 OPS 154 OPS+
2005 (age 38): 100 games, .289 AVG, 15 HR, 52 RBI, .384 OBP/.502 SLG/.886 OPS 130 OPS+
In his second-to-last season, at age 38, Walker had a 154 OPS+. That's better than the best season Derek Jeter had in his 20 year career.
Jeter 1999-.989 OPS, 153 OPS+
Walker 2004-1.013 OPS, 154+
Your narrative is untenable. If Derek "no power, no walk, no glove" Jeter is a Hall of Famer, than Walker, who bests him in every conceivable metric statisticians have to assess a player's performance, deserves to be in as well, and anybody who doesn't see it is a moron.