Quote:
Originally Posted by packs
Just for reference, here are Walker's home / away splits from his MVP season. Wouldn't this have been an MVP season for any player?
Home: 384 average, 20 homers, 68 rbis, 460 OBP, 1.169 OPS
Away: 346 average, 29 homers, 62 rbis, 443 OBP, 1.176 OPS
He also put up a 30/30 season that year. As far as I know Coors Field has never equated to an advantage in stolen bases.
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You're right. I've looked at Walker's home-road splits for his time in Colorado. There was no pattern. None. You could have spit out a spreadsheet, stuck it in HAL 9000's input slot, and he would have blown his mainframe trying to predict future splits. It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen. Well, almost.
Further examination isn't necessary to blow apart this whole notion that "Walker was made by Coors". During his MVP season, he was
better on the road. Sure, his home average is better (.384 vs .346--he's still playing out of his mind both at Coors, and anywhere else). If you look at his OBP as expressed as everything but his AVG, he's more disciplined on the road.
Home .460 OBP - .384 AVG = 0.76 of OBP from walks, HBP. 36 BB in 350 PA = 10.3% walk rate.
Away .443 OBP - .346 AVG = 0.97 of OBP from walks, HBP. 42 BB in 314 PA = 13.4% walk rate.
And look at the power variance.
30 2B/4 3B/20 HR at home. .709 SLG
16 2B/0 3B/29 HR on the road. .733 SLG
His isolated power metric was through the roof anywhere he hit.
In 1995, his OPS was 1.131 at Coors, .845 on the road.
In 1996, his OPS was 1.248 at Coors, .523 on the road in only 83 games.
In 1997, his OPS was 1.169 at Coors, 1.176 on the road.
In 1998, his OPS was 1.241 at Coors, .892 on the road.
In 1999, his OPS was 1.410 at Coors, .894 on the road.
In 2000, his OPS was 1.062 at Coors, .770 on the road in only 87 games.
At this point, 1997 looks like an outlier on the road. He still hits well away from Coors (.850 to just under .900 is still All Star caliber). Then 2001 comes.
In 2001, his OPS was 1.256 at Coors, .965 on the road. 20 HR at home, 18 on the road.
In 2002, his OPS was 1.124 at Coors, .917 on the road.
Very few players are going to OPS over 1.000 on the road. There are those rare guys who put up nearly identical numbers everywhere:
Willie Mays
Home: 1,490 games, 335 HR, .302 AVG, .387/.567/.953
Away: 1,502 games, 325 HR, .301 AVG, .382/.549/.931
That's sick.
Stan Musial
Home: 1,524 games, 1,815 hits, 252 HR, .336 AVG, .427/.582/1.009
Away: 1,502 games, 1,185 hits, 223 HR, .326 AVG, .407/.537/.944
That's a 65 point variance.
Mickey Mantle
Home: 1,213 games, 266 HR, .305 AVG, .428/.569/.997
Away: 1,188 games, 270 HR, .291 AVG, .413/.545/.958
I think the variance that is seen with a good number of today's hitters is due to the drastic changes in environment from one park to another. Think about a National League hitter until recently, that might have, in two weeks time, played in Coors Field, Candlestick, Chavez Ravine, Bank One Ballpark, and Miller Park.
A hitter might deal with thin air, wind blowing in from San Francisco's bay, artificial turf, natural grass, or a retractable roof in Phoenix or Milwaukee. I would think that's a lot of adjusting. It's only natural a hitter would be more comfortable in their home park. But Walker has demonstrated he can hit for power anywhere. And his fielding will play anywhere.