From 1992 through the end of his career, Shilling was below all-star level only in 1994 and 2005. He was roughly average in 1994, and terrible in 2005. He's almost exactly as well-qualified for the hall as Mussina is, unless you want to give him extra credit for post-season performance. Mussina has a 2 WAR lead, which, over the course of a career, is negligible. Brown was an occasionally-great pitcher (he probably should have won the 1996 NL Cy Young award), but he's a step behind the other two.
I'm reasonably confident that Shilling and Mussina will both get elected eventually. The problem that Mussina is going to have is that the voters are not good at adjusting for context. He has a career 3.68 ERA, which doesn't look HOF-worthy, but adjusted for context it is better than Fergie Jenkins, Steve Carlton, and about the same as (actually very slightly better than) Don Drysdale. Adjusted for context, Shilling's ERA is better than all of those guys; he is 46th all-time, tied with, among others, Tom Seaver.
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