The vast majority of sales are genuine. Look at all the cards flowing through the auction houses: does anyone really believe that they are not selling the cards? I've done legal work for a few of them going after non-paying bidders. They take it very seriously and on high dollar cards will sue for their vig. I also know quite a few of the buyers and they are actual collectors who are tickled pink over getting their dream cards.
All that said, there is a great deal of speculation going on right now, lots of wannabe flippers. They are going to get their wings clipped badly when the corrections start, unless they have the discipline to set a specific target and sell when it gets there as the prices go up. I personally do not find this M.O. to be compelling, mainly because the transactional costs are so large (10% on up) for anything except a private sale and selling can be a PITA.
All these macro discussions about why remind me of an interview I heard once with Mark Cuban. He was asked about some sort of tax policy and scoffed at its effect on investment: he said that no one ever invests in a company or product based on taxes, they do it to make money and if there is a tax break it is ancillary to the main considerations. It's all BS too: no one 'knows' why things are as they are, just like none of the news organizations 'know' why the market went up or down on any given day. Individual decisionmaking does not aggregate into a collective consciousness, only into a collective outcome. Anyone making macroeconomic prognostications about why Willie Mays cards are going up or down is pulling it out of his ass, and more likely than not is coming to his opinions based on his personal biases and experiences. Of course the 1952 Topps Mantle is worth a fortune...if I own one of the MOFOs. Otherwise, it is overvalued and part of a bubble.
|