Quote:
Originally Posted by japhi
Yes I understand all that, even mentioned it was a cherry picked sample.
Tesla was what, 80 bucks a few years ago? 6x in 24 months what can we take from that? Outproduced almost every widely traded sports card. Trades at 1000x earnings. What does that tell us? We are in a crazy asset bubble, context is I’m down on anything that isn’t a value play. I’ll take JPM long term over a 53 Mantle or TSLA.
I’m low risk, long term, etf / bluechip / dividend investor. So I am definitely not the target market here. But I do love the hustle and as a spec play/ gambling I get the appeal.
Question for you since you are big on this as an investment. What do you have the market value of that card being today? Asking sincerely , I have no idea what that card would sell for.
Either way interesting discussion and I don’t root for these things to fail, I hope your 10k becomes 100k, this isn’t a sum zero game so ideally we are both right.
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I am a diversified person. I own my car, I own my condo, I have a cash account, I have my retirement accounts which are my largest asset, and I have my card collection that has rocketed to levels honestly I can't believe. In the baseball card world a guy like me is a small fish. In my genre which is primary wrestling I have the most valuable collection of anyone. There really isn't probably another space where a guy my age and with my net worth is at the top. I have had tremendous luck with cards and perhaps that will change and current values are fantasy but I am sticking with my long term vision. I own some of my old baseball cards but nothing of value and for ten years I have been beating the drum that the best cards had no where to go but up. We are now in a phase where I have never felt more strongly about that and time will tell how it plays out. For me I would love to own some cool cards from the major sports but either they are one too much capital commitment or I just have no connection to them and just would want them for investment purposes. This card is clearly one of the best baseball cards that exists. Some will say well it is only that because it is a 10. Well guess what since 1999 those same people have been saying the same thing and 31 years later the disparity just continue to get wider. That is their personal preference but the market which is a collective of all interested parties completely disagrees and they do so with their money. Buying this card at 2.5 million is not going to be a TSLA return. I am the last guy to ask about that stock because it is mind boggling to me. That said it has continued to shock long term market participants in mass but on the other side of the trade is Ron Baron who routinely comes on CNBC and says he thinks it is going to the moon. So far he has been right and most have been wrong. I have gambled away 10k before on an options trade and so there is no scenario where this goes to zero. I honestly just wanted to give it a shot and I actually think you will see a scenario where this sells out and then there won't be much turn over and the small amount of trading will push the shares to a premium. In the stock market this happens all of the time with low float stocks and with one shareholder controlling 60% of the pie and not in the float this is a likely outcome. As I stated I would love for a Jordan to come up where I could take a larger stake and perhaps a 52 Mantle and so forth. I think the fair market value for this card is debatable and I am not really in a good position to even know. I believe cards like this are like art and once they become such a coveted item they can go to levels no one can imagine. It may be a scenario like an IPO in 1999 where they sell at a huge valuation and there is little upside and so maybe this deal isn't a great one but there will be plenty more to come and I will certainly look to put a few more bucks to work. Under no circumstances do I see this as a 10X play. But I do think the goal from so many investors to find alternative assets is huge. In the example where it was 2004 to 2009, the Wagner was up from just over 100k to 400k and the market actually fell nearly 40% and simply rebounded during that timeframe. There will be rolling periods where certain assets classes outperform or underperform but monster baseball cards from what I can see have held up great and attracted great interest from wealthy people and that same holds true for high end art, comics, cars, stamps and just about anything you can think of. This is an apex item and it will always be.