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randman, Leon really said it! at this point, ebay is wide open. the only way i can determine a fair price is my personal feeling. once i do some homework on the card, meaning degree of difficulty, short print, ect.. i go to the psa and sgc registry and look to see how many are in the pop report. i will watch the item on ebay sales and closed auctions. then i will bid at the last second what i am willing to pay. i do not take it personally anymore if i dont win the card, even if its an important one for my set. i have learned that ebay will recycle it again and all i have to do is wait. i have saved $100's by waiting for the next one. of course i am referring to cards that are not rare or real high end items.
i think VCP is a good barometer, and a complete improvement over SMR, but not the only answer.