Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
But isn't that offset by the fact that your starter is a better pitcher than the journeyman who replaces him? I admit not to knowing the data, but I can't believe it would pay to yank Pedro Martinez in the 4th in factor of some fungible castoff.
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Yes, and no. Most relievers are failed starters, yet they produce better ERA's than most starting pitchers largely because of this factor; they present a change to the batter that requires adjustment, can go all out, and don't have to think about anything but throwing to just a handful of guys. Even the best pitchers in baseball are allowed to throw less and less innings every single year. Only 4 pitchers reached 200 innings, because even the best are less effective with every round through the batting order, and they are pulled earlier and earlier for an assortment of journeyman, specialists, and context-depending relievers that excel in certain situations.
Of course, things are a little different if you're looking at a guy like Pedro whose a generational talent and possibly the most dominant pitcher of all time. The very best might get to go twice through the order, but the trend of the last 70 years of decreasing pitching time and using more pitchers for this reason seems to me almost inevitable that it will eventually reach its ultimate logical conclusion. My money is on that rosters will keep expanding, and the data analytics will only take over the remaining bits of the game it hasn't already.