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Colt McClellandI have to chime in on this issue since I track many of the caramel issues very closely. No doubt, you can look at some "outliers" with caramel cards and say that the prices seem to be way too high. However, I think this is the case across a lot of segments of the baseball card market. Further, I think this has probably been true for at least the past 20 years in this hobby (that's as far back as I have any memory or knowledge). In other words, there have always been pockets in this hobby where people go out and pay WAY too much for certain cards. Case in point - the whole PSA "low pop" common phenomenon that started several years ago and continues to this day. It just seems to move from set to set, decade to decade. I tought it was crazy when people were paying $200+ for a "common" from the 1977 Topps set in PSA 10. Today, the same card can be had for $20. The same thing is still true with low pop PSA 8 commons from many of the Topps sets from the 50's and 60's. Some of these "low pop" PSA 8 commons can go for $2,000 or more
But, I think it is wrong to say that caramel cards are the most inflated segment of the hobby. Just like it would have been wrong to say that the 1977 topps set was the most inflated set in the hobby when PSA 10's were going for $200+, and just like it would be wrong to say that the 1950's and 1960's Topps sets are the most inflated segment of the hobby now. Certainly, the caramel cards have gone through a "hot" phase. I have to agree with some others that a lot of this was simply a long overdue correction to put caramels in line with many of the other pre-war cards in terms of the price/scarcity spectrum.
However, a better way to analyze the issue would be to look at the more "normal" sales that are taking place on a regular basis for caramel cards. For example, in the last 6 months, I have seen 3 different sales of E95 Mathewson cards in PSA or SGC 3 holders - all in the $600 to $700 range. I don't think these prices are "WAY over priced". In fact, I think these are very fair prices in terms of the popularity of the player, and the scarcity of the set. There are many more examples of caramels that are selling for what I would consider to be fair prices when compared to other popular pre-war sets (especially in terms of HOF players from the most popular caramel card sets like E93, E95, etc.)
I think a more fair assessment would be to say that pre-war cards in general have enjoyed a very nice run-up in market value over the past few years, and that caramel cards are at or near the top of the group in terms of which sets have received the most benefit. However, a significant factor in that is the fact that caramels were very much under-appreciated and under-valued for years, and that is no longer the case (and probably never will be again).