Quote:
Originally Posted by swarmee
Yep, I'm aware. I'd rather lose the small IMO upside risk during some times than suffer the downside.
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But the research shows you can't really predict what is going to happen when, so assuming you believe in the market over the long term (and if you don't of course you shouldn't be in it period), you're better off just deciding in light of your goals and timeframe what your allocation is between equities, debt (and cash), and more or less riding it out. The guy who founded Vanguard wrote a short but very IMO informative book along these lines, and there's another very similar one written by a very successful guy who became fatally ill and decided to put all his wisdom into a short book. As for being able to predict trends be they down or up, or where the market is heading at any given moment, consider the famous quote by Paul Samuelson: economists have successfully predicted 6 out of the last 4 recessions.
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