Originally Posted by G1911
The key difference being that data suggests taking the field in a war zone brings a significant risk of being shot.
I know someone who was attacked by a shark. Does that make it a reasonable thing for me to fear, and refuse to go swimming? No.
Anecdote is still not data. So I just looked it up. The CDC's best estimate for the 18-49 age group is 500 deaths per 1,000,000 infections. The worst scenario is 1,700 deaths per 1,000,000 infections. Every study has found most fatalities have multiple major comorbidities, are centered in the obese and weak, and risk increases with age (49 year's are lumped with 18's, and still only projects at 500 in a 1,000,000). These projections are for the overall, lumping in the healthy and unhealthy. They report a grand total of 6,513 deaths in the 30-39 age group, again, centered in those who were unhealthy to begin with, and studies (we can't question scientists, right?) suggest most of whom were obese. 1 in 2,000 infections is a .0005% risk (actually, the total risk is even less than that. CDC data tells us there are many more deaths in the 40-49 group than 30-39, almost triple in fact, and of course, many people will simply not get infected, but I'll even be generous and completely ignore these factors).
Estimates are estimates, projections are projections. Maybe the real is a bit higher, maybe it's a bit lower. Even if we go ahead and increase it 1,000%, far more than the worst case projections, the risk is still so tiny it's essentially a rounding error.
I sure hope that everyone demanding that healthy 30 year olds change their life is following their own advice and changing their lifestyle over all of the things they have a .0005% projected risk of dying from. Because wow, it's a lot of things for them to keep track of, much less act upon. There's really nothing else to say in this thread, people will feed off the public hysteria and anecdote, or take a look at the numbers and do some basic risk analysis. Neither side is really going to budge at this point.
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