Posted By:
Gilbert Maines "WILL Rarity become the No.1 factor in determining a card's value?", as that is my real question for the board to consider and opine on........."
Yes.
And I guess that your next question is: "when?"
The answer which I have for that requires that you honestly appraise the hobby's progress to date (we are now firming up the actual dates which almost all of the sets were produced; having recently completed determining almost all of the cards in each set). And realize that awareness of what is being collected in this hobby is in its infancy. That is: we are beginning to get a grasp on the components of this hobby. The next step will be (through historical records compiled by persons like Bobby Bresdo, Ted Golden and others via their utilities, and other sources) the establishment of the population of each element which we collect.
I anticipate this process requiring decades. At the conclusion of these "decades" there will remain a high degree of uncertainty regarding each cards population, particularly with regard to the less densly populated issues. This is because cards may be stocked away, left to people who have no interest in them, nor any interest in disposing of them; and essentially gone from the hobby - until that fateful day when they return.
How long until this uncertainty disappears? What - ev - ahhh length of time is the interval required for rarity to be established with certainty. At that time, card prices can begin to be based on rarity, recognizing that consideration to demand precipitated by the relative popularity of any set will always be a factor.
But will people ever care that the '52 Mantle is not that player's rookie card?