Originally Posted by the 'stache
I think most of us can agree that Hernandez was the best defensive first basemen in our lifetime, with Don Mattingly not far behind him.
So, I ask you all this. If Ozzie Smith was put in the Hall of Fame for his defensive wizardry, tell me why Keith Hernandez is not in Cooperstown?
I know there are better defensive metrics available, but for this discussion, let's just use Gold Gloves for comparative purposes, ok?
Gold Gloves:
Ozzie Smith, 13 at shortstop (1980 to 1992)
Keith Hernandez, 11 at first base (1978 to 1988)
Ok, Ozzie won two more at short than Keith won at first. But I think we'd all agree that if you win ten or more Gold Gloves, you're pretty incredible defensively.
Now, taking that logic a bit further. What if Keith won only 9 Gold Gloves instead of 11? You'd still consider him a spectacular defender, right? I mean, as a baseball player ages, no matter how good they are, their reflexes will slow down. If you win almost a decade's worth of Gold Gloves, you've been pretty much exceptional at your position. Without peer.
Let's go back to Ozzie Smith. All glove, no stick. Yes, Ozzie managed to tally 2,460 hits because he played 19 seasons. And yes, he did become a better hitter later in his career. From 1978 to 1984, Ozzie Smith had a .604 OPS. That's pretty bad. From 1985 to 1996, the end of his career, his OPS was .702. Still not very good, but a 100 point improvement is substantial. But let's not kid ourselves. He got into Cooperstown because of his glove.
Keith Hernandez, who was pretty much the defensive equivalent of Ozzie Smith at first base, was not a weak hitter. Not at all. Hernandez won the 1979 MVP, hitting a league-leading .344 with 116 runs scored, 210 hits, 48 doubles, 11 triples, 11 home runs and 105 RBI. He walked 80 times, and struck out 78. The next season, Keith led the NL with 111 runs scored and a .408 OBP. In his 17 year career, Hernandez accumulated 2,182 hits, 1,124 runs, 1,070 RBI, and 1,071 walks. He was a career .296 hitter, with an impressive slash line of .384/.436/.821.
I think the thing that has kept Keith Hernandez out of the Hall of Fame is that he was never the prototypical first baseman. He was never a power hitter, nor was he really a big time run producer. The 105 RBI of his MVP season represented his career high, and the only time he would exceed 100 RBI. But where is it written that all first basemen must be big power hitting run producers? Take somebody like Prince Fielder. A guy that will hit .280 with 35 to 40 home runs and 110 RBI, and provide below average defense. Keith Hernandez was an outstanding hitter. If he was Ozzie Smith's equal defensively, though at a different position, why then is he not in the Hall of Fame when he is so clearly superior to Smith as an offensive force? Smith's 87 OPS+ is pretty abysmal. Keith Hernandez had a 128 OPS +. Since 1964, the last 50 years, there have been 245 hitters to total 6,000 or more at bats. Keith Hernandez, a man who never hit twenty home runs in a single season, is 59th on that list with his 128 OPS +. He has the same OPS + of Jim Rice and Sammy Sosa. His OPS + is one point power than Bobby Bonds, Fred Lynn and Eddie Murray, who compiled a 129 OPS +. These names I have mentioned put up some pretty impressive numbers. Murray and Rice are Hall of Famers, and neither could approach Keith Hernandez' defensive abilities. Sammy Sosa hit 60 home runs multiple times, one of only two men in history to do so.
Keith Hernandez, in my opinion, should have been in the Hall of Fame long ago. He showed that a first baseman could be more, that a first baseman could be different, yet extremely successful.
What about Don Mattingly then? Keith Hernandez won 11 Gold Gloves. Don Mattingly won 9. Keep in mind that the Gold Glove Award was first handed out in 1957. That being said, only Keith Hernandez in the last fifty seven years has had more Gold Gloves won at first base.
It's been said before that Don Mattingly will likely never make the Hall of Fame.
Why? Could I go through the list of players that have been inducted into the Hall of Fame, and find several that were inferior players when compared to Mattingly? Absolutely. Of course, we all know that only the player's accomplishments can be considered.
Don Mattingly played 14 years in the Major Leagues. He won 9 Gold Glove Awards. He was named an All Star 6 times. He won the 1985 American League MVP Award. He was the MVP runner up the next season (and he should have won. Roger Clemens won the Cy Young and MVP both that season, and I have a problem with pitchers being included in MVP voting). And he finished 5th in the 1984 AL MVP vote. Mattingly hit safely 2,154 times in his career. He hit 442 doubles, 222 home runs. He scored 1,007 times, and drove in 1,099 runs. He walked 588 times, and only struck out 444 times. 444 strike outs in 7,003 at bats.
In my opinion, and it is only my opinion, he was the best player in baseball between 1984 and 1987. Of the 124 Major League players to have 1,600 or more at bats between 1984 and 1987, Mattingly had the highest OPS + at 155. During that period, Mattingly's .337 AVG was third best in the Majors behind Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn. But while those two combined to hit 78 home runs in the four years, Mattingly hit 119, sixth best of all Major League hitters. And, none of the five men who hit more home runs than Mattingly hit over .300. Mattingly was the best combination of power and average in the game. Mattingly's 842 hits was second best in the Majors behind Wade Boggs' 850. Mattingly easily led the Majors with 183 doubles during this period, 23 more than second place finished Wade Boggs. And, Mattingly's 483 RBI were by far the most in the Major Leagues, besting second place finished Dave Parker by 51. And from 1985 to 1987, Mattingly won the Gold Glove Award at first base. He was the best player in the Majors offensively, and by that point, Keith Hernandez' equal defensively at first base.
When I consider a player's worthiness for Cooperstown, I ask a small list of questions.
1. Did the player in question ever win an MVP award? Cy Young for pitchers? How many times did the player in question finish in the top 5 in their specific award?
2. Beyond any MVP or Cy Young Awards, were they the best player in baseball for a period of time beyond the one season?
3. Were they the best player in their league at their position? Were they the best in baseball at their position?
4. For hitters, how many of the Triple Crown categories did they lead in a season? How many times did they lead the league in runs, stolen bases or walks? How many times did they lead the league in OBP, SLG or OPS.
5. How many times did were they named an All Star? Did they win any Gold Glove Awards?
6. How big a role did they play in getting their team to the playoffs? How did they perform in the post season if they got there.
7. Finally, what players most closely match their career totals? Did they make the Hall of Fame, or are they currently under consideration for election?
8. Are they the best player not to be elected to the Hall of Fame? Are they the best player at their primary position not to get elected to the Hall of Fame.
These questions are obviously quite similar to the list created by Ken Keltner.
When I read through this list, I can't help but look at Don Mattingly's career, and think he's a Hall of Famer. Yes, his power numbers did tail off greatly after the 1989 season. But shoulder and back injuries hindered him. His numbers did not fall off because of any decline in skill.
Mattingly not only had an outstanding career, and an elite peak period, but he was, in my opinion, the best player in baseball for a four year period. He was an elite hitter and fielder both. Not many players will win 9 Gold Gloves and have four seasons with .900 + OPS totals.
But ultimately, I would present my case for Mattingly this way. Since 1964, the last 50 years of Major League Baseball, there have been 240 hitters to register 6,000 or more at bats. Of those, only fifteen men have a higher batting average than Mattingly's career .307 mark. And every one of those men had strikeout totals that were substantially higher, except for Tony Gwynn. Mattingly had 7,772 plate appearances, and struck out 434 times. Tony Gwynn had 10,232 plate appearances, and struck out only 444 times. Gwynn struck out once every 21.4 at bats. Don Mattingly struck out every 15.77 at bats. When considering hitters on this list with over 200 home runs, the next best strikeout rate belongs to Ted Simmons, who only struck out once every 12.50 at bats.
What does all this mean? It means that at his very best, before back and shoulder injuries sapped his power, Don Mattingly was the best hitter in baseball. He was the best combination of power, run production, and pure hitting. Mattingly in his four years atop baseball as its best player hit those 119 home runs, or 30 home runs per season, while only striking out 147 times. When you consider that there are hitters now striking out more than 200 times a season, Mattingly at his best was reminiscent of Joe DiMaggio. I mean, does anybody today hit 30 home runs, and strike out 37 times? That's what Donnie Baseball did. And while Mattingly was destroying the baseball, he was also playing spectacular defense at first.
|