Quote:
Originally Posted by packs
I guess your stance on Trout depends on what you mean by expectations. I think he'll be a 600 homer / 3,000 hit guy. There's only four others. One is a definite cheat in A-rod and then there's Pujols.
Pretty exclusive club with Hank and Willie.
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I'm not sure Trout will get to 3000 hits, or even close to it. Don't think it's important either. Other players he profiles similar to didn't get there either. Williams, Mantle, Ruth, Gehrig, Bonds. He's an on base and slugging machine....but not a hit machine.
I understand why he would be included in this thread, simply because he is modern, and his stuff is sooooo high already. You could argue, the only direction is down,.....even though he's forever going to have iconic status at this point.
I think there's a good chance he starts to get ravaged by injuries (he hasn't played more then 140 games since 2016), similar to Griffey Jr.. He starts a slow but steady slide, while still putting up respectable numbers, collectors start to lose interest in him, and his cards start to wane a bit.
Like Griffey, I also expect for him to gain in his reputation after he retires and his stuff will start to take off again, while the next Mike Trout is tearing up the league sometime in the not so distant future.
Not sure a "short-sell" is appropriate however, unless the modern era hobby starts to collapse under economic pressure from the outside world, and the present prices just become considered unjustifiable, completely separate from his on-field performance.