Quote:
Originally Posted by raulus
Thanks for sharing a bit more about how the gambling world works.
Does this mean that it’s a theoretical impossibility for Petey to change his management approach to benefit the games he bets on in a fashion that might negatively impact other games?
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No, of course not. He could do something stupid like putting tomorrow's SP on the mound in the bottom of the 8th in a tie game. That would increase his chances of winning today at the expense of tomorrow's game. But it'd also be a really stupid thing to do, and it wouldn't matter for tomorrow's game anyhow, because him doing that would change the betting line for the next day. No advantage can be obtained for tomorrow's game.
But I think what you're intending to ask, and if not, I'll propose the question as many have alluded to this above, is whether Pete changing his management approach to win today might create an opportunity for betting on tomorrow's game to be exploited by his actions today. And the answer to that is 'no', he cannot. Whatever actions he takes today will get baked in to tomorrow's betting lines. The only way he could cheat is by throwing a game and betting against his team.
But even in the example above, where Pete throws tomorrow's SP in the 8th to win a game, it would only gain him an advantage a few times at most. Because the betting lines would be set under the assumption that he wouldn't do something as stupid as this, but once he shows that he very well might do that in future games, the market betting lines will adjust. He could not gain an advantage even in this situation over the course of a season.