Quote:
Originally Posted by sbfinley
I had dinner with one of my former professors and advisor last night. He heads the history department at the college I attended and is probably one of the top 5 experts on WWI in the United States. His wife is a fellow at a major European political policy institute which is providing some of the most accurate and precise analysis of the war. His analysis is thus:
Starting at 0% from the moment Russia invaded he gives Ukraine a half percent more chance to win (Russian eventual withdrawal with no occupation) with every 48 hours that passes with the Ukrainian government intact and a supply line from NATO forces to Ukrainian.
They are out manned 11-1 and outgunned 100-1, but.... they are arguably much better trained, have better personal equipment, knowledge of the war zone, and most importantly a desire to fight to defend their homeland and democracy. Kyiv will likely become a battle for every building and in that scenario it normally takes 5 highly trained and motivated attackers for every 1 defender. As the world as astoundingly realized, the Russian main assault force has proven to be poorly trained and supported, lacking such basic needs as adequate comms, fuel, and rations.
You are absolutely right that someone should surrender to save more spilled blood - the Russian invading force. I would never expect my nation to kneel to an autocratic invasion and I sure wouldn’t ever ask someone else to do so either.
Zelensky is damned hero in the face of adversity unmatched, or as my friend put it “The world witnessing another Nation’s George Washington in real time.”
I sincerely hope Ukraine fights until the tide turns and the invading snake decapitates itself.
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Well hopefully he studied WWII as well. Look at Stalingrad. Germans had the better army, but in time the numbers win out. The supply lines will eventually be cut off. Putin who already isn't playing fair, will continue to up that. And he'll gladly give up 5 of his for 1 of theirs.
Stalingrad took 6 months. Obviously not exactly the same situation, but similar enough. This will be over in a much shorter time frame.
Sad, but true.
Edited to add - I also do not want to see all those kids and babies grow up without a dad. I understand and respect and am in awe of Zelensky's passion/patriotism/dedication, but I prefer to see him and everyone left live. Zelensky should negotiate a surrender, maybe they can get a third of the country, Putin takes 2/3. Try to get it back down the road. Putin ain't gonna live forever. It would save a lot of lives.