Ever since the advent of eBay and on-line auctions (becoming prevalent around the year 2,000), much of the good stuff has found its way into collections. And because of the extreme rarity, most advanced collectors are hesitant to let their best pieces go. Same applies to me personally... I would much rather sell or consign a piece that has a chance of resurfacing some day. It's very difficult to part with ultra-rare items that have defied Father Time against all odds.... especially when in nice condition.
This phenomenon largely explains the dwindling number of 19th century offerings seen at auction. There are other factors as well, such as those mentioned previously in this thread.
When 19th Century collectors start "aging out" and some of these items start to reappear in the marketplace, I'm confident prices will be quite strong. There will always be a demand for truly rare and landmark pieces that were instrumental in shaping the game.
On the rare occasion something turns up these days (such as a Trophy Bat, Pillbox Hat, Lace-front Jersey, Workman's Glove, Thayer Mask, etc.) I seemingly always get outbid now. Back in the 1990s - early 2000s, I had a far better "wining percentage" on these antique items. There's simply more demand and far less supply these days.
The recent escalation of card prices (especially for items that aren't even rare) has been beyond impressive. But sooner or later, that bubble will inevitably burst. Truly rare artifacts will realize a more steady and stable rise over time.
That said, we may be in for a few more years of this dry spell.
|