T206 "Population Reports"

[Archive]

Posted By: Dave F

I would be curious to know from our board T206 experts what the feeling is on some pop reports of T206's. I know a couple weeks ago we had a discussion on pop reports of some of the T206 backs...but what about individual cards?

1. Ty Cobb with Cobb back?
2. Demmitt St. Louis?
3. Foster Southern Leaguer?
4. A common card in general...say a Bill Bradley?
5. A card only available in like a 460 series or the likes...maybe a Arlie Latham?
6. And a populated variety...a Chance yellow?


Obviously rough estimates at the best..but I'd still be curious to hear input.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimB

Ty Cobb with Cobb back...................12
Demmitt St. Louis..............................250
Foster Southern Leaguer....................500
Common card....................................3000
460 Series..........................................I will leave that for the series analyzers like Scot
Chance Yellow/Populated cards.........4000


JimB

[Archive]

Posted By: Wesley

It is interesting to see cards such as the Demmitt and O'Hara are considered rarities in the T206 set, but their estimated populations are several hundred. That is what is unique about the T206 set. In any other prewar set, cards with population of several hundred are generally not considered rarities.

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

What is really surprising, to me, is the continuing demand for PSA 4 cards of super commons, like Bob Unglaub. The fact that this card will sell 100 times over on ebay this year, but people are still willing to pay at least $40 each time it comes up, is remarkable to me. There are something like 800-1000 T206 cards in auction (not including BIN/stores) on ebay right now, and there are thousands of bidders. And its been that way for years. Its remarkable.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jim Dale

Not to bring up a bad subject but I have to wonder how the reports are effected when PSA agreed to reslab some cards for the auction house a few issues back? We're the old numbers deleted? Or are their duplicates in the system now?

[Archive]

Posted By: Dylan

With T206 its all about relative scarcity. Since the set is so widely collected there's a lot more demand. For instance, even the T206 Wagner is not rarer then many of the other issues Wagner has been portrayed in.

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

...PSA pop reports to be anything other than loose indicators of relative scarcity.

[Archive]

Posted By: Mike

T206 is right on. About the only time they are close to being accurate, is if someone has a rare card, maybe one or two of a kind, and the reports say one or two. There is more than one grader.

Edited for grammer

[Archive]

Posted By: Dave F

And just to clarify....this was a question about total amount of cards..not just graded cards with PSA or SGC...as those aren't accurate as we all know.

I do find Jim's thoughts interesting though. Probably most surprised by his thoughts on the amount of SL'gers. Considering there may be only around 500 Fosters....sure seems like SL'gers come up quite often on ebay.

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

...is a tough Southern Leaguer. E.g., there are a lot more Westlakes.

[Archive]

Posted By: Dave F

Paul....any thought then on the range of southern leaguers?

If Foster has about 500 examples today....than Westlake who is pretty much considered the most common of the SL'gers.....has maybe 900-1000 examples?

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

The most sophisticated analysis that I am aware of is Scot Reader's relative scarcity discussion, which extrapolated population estimates from various conclusions -- he referred to it as "speculation-laden," but it is probably the best thing out there. I paste it below:

"One speculation-laden analysis would place the surviving number of T206 specimens in the 1.6 million range. Such an analysis extrapolates that figure from an estimate of the surviving quantities of two rare subjects, Demmitt (St. Louis) and O'Hara (St. Louis). These subjects are known only with the Polar Bear reverse; however, they are not notably scarcer with that back than other 350-only subjects. The Polar Bear back was seen on about 6.6% of the total population of 350-only series subjects in a 14,000+ card sub-survey I conducted. Thus, if one assumes that roughly 200 of each of these rare subjects remain in existence, and further assumes that survival rates for these subjects conform with those of other subjects, the surviving quantity of a typical 350-only subject is somewhere in the neighborhood of 3,000. Finally, assuming for the sake of rough-and-ready calculation uniformity of survival among series, the total number of T206 specimens in existence today is estimable in the general vicinity of 1.6 million. Of course, if there are 400 examples each of Demmitt (St. Louis) and O'Hara (St. Louis) extant instead of 200, the presumed number of T206 cards with us today doubles to 3.2 million, or about 6,000 per subject on average, under this same analysis. In any case, of the likely hundreds of millions of specimens initially produced, it seems highly probable that the number of T206 cards in existence today is in the low single digit millions, or a few thousand for a typical subject. This is quite possibly less than one percent of the original production, with the vast majority of these survivors being
in lower grade."

*

What is somewhat missing from the scarcity rankings is the relative scarcity as you move down the list from 1 to 50. That is, #1 is a lot more scarer than #10, but #10 through #50 are, by comparison, nearly as scarce as each other.

Based on Reader's analysis, I would think there are probably 1,000 or more Westlakes out there.