PWCC E98 Black Swamp (De-Identi-) Find

[T206Collector]

Including last night's (April 9) auction, over the past month (since March 12), PWCC has auctioned 62 E98s, many of which were very high grade, and almost none of which were identified on the flip as Black Swamp Find (perhaps just two: Bender Red PSA 9, and Bridwell Orange PSA 7)

As far as I can tell, up to 59 of these appear to be new additions to the BSF universe (not the Wagner Blue AUT, or the Bender, Bridwell), as opposed to cross overs or reholders -- albeit not labeled as so. For example, there are no BSF Brown Reds below a 7:

https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball...8-set-30/36067

But, on March 12, PWCC sold a 6 which looks like it came from the same collection:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-E98-Se...p2047675.l2557

Similarly, there are no BSF Bresnahan Reds below a 6. But last night, PWCC sold a 5 from the same collection:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-E98-Se...IAAOSwh8xcn6cv

Here is the PSA cert link for that Bresnahan, which shows that it was sold by PWCC last night (and that there are only 3 graded higher - of course, only if you don't count the BSF reds, where 17 more are graded higher):

https://www.psacard.com/cert/42404232/

If I am right -- as I previously mentioned on this thread (http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...ighlight=swamp) -- I think what is happening here is the BSF family members (or their associates) have held onto some of these since 2012, and are "strategically" leaking them into the market. As I mentioned in that thread, I have exchanged a few correspondence with the family, and understand that their deal with Heritage was for 5 years, which expired in 2017.

And the serial numbers line up in HUGE quantities. So, if someone is reholdering a bunch of "Black Swamp Finds", why did they leave Bender Red 9 and Bridwell Orange 7 off the list?

Spot checking a lot of these, I identified 175 newly holdered E98s:

From 42404231 through 42404280 (50 cards)

From 42404294 through 42404323 (30 cards)

From 42404331 through 42404374 (44 cards)

From 41243594 through 41243644 (51 cards)

That's 175 new E98s that have been certified by PSA, 59 of which were sold by PWCC over the past month. The ones that are identified as publicly sold on PSA's website are all, I believe, identified as PWCC sales. This suggests that PWCC has (perhaps well) over 100 left to sell in upcoming auctions.

I'd be really interested to learn whether someone thinks these are just PSA re-holders or cross-overs from SGC. Though why somebody would spend so much money to reholder 175 E98s to remove the BSF designation would certainly surprise me. Otherwise, this means there could be well over 100 minty fresh E98s still to hit the market from the 2012 find. And, sadly, it lends credence to the conspiracy theory that someone is still minting these...

Somebody please prove me wrong! I encourage you to check my work at https://www.psacard.com/cert/14635406

[x2drich2000]

I think these may be new releases held back from the original find. When the show Strange Inheritance aired about the BSF, the primary contact admitted on the show that some family members decided to hold onto their portion of the collection and not consign them to Heritage. The show claimed the total number found was over 800. How many were originally held back and what the actual total was, who knows.

However, just to put some rough numbers to it, a search of Heritage website for "Black Swamp Find" comes up with 570 past results including 1 lot of 29 and 1 lot of 27 for a total of 624 cards (not factoring in any BSF cards resold or keyword hyping/spamming). Add the 175 newly graded examples and you get 799.

DJ

[bigfish]

I think there’s a lot more that were held back that are now being sprinkled into the market. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a lot more to come.

[groundskeeper]

The PWCC BSF Bender sold for $2000 more than a Memory Lane BSF Bender (of the same grade) 3 days prior. Maybe the drug dealer/money launderer who bought it will feel bad when he finds out there's a bunch more cards yet to hit the market.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Paul good research, to me the most likely explanation is the family held some back and/or moved some other than to Heritage.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

The PWCC BSF Bender sold for $2000 more than a Memory Lane BSF Bender (of the same grade) 3 days prior. Maybe the drug dealer/money launderer who bought it will feel bad when he finds out there's a bunch more cards yet to hit the market.

Wow. Aggressive.

[RCMcKenzie]

My understanding is that he found them in grandpa's attic and the rest is history. It sort of ruined e98's for me as I have not bid on one since 2011.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

The PWCC BSF Bender sold for $2000 more than a Memory Lane BSF Bender (of the same grade) 3 days prior. Maybe the drug dealer/money launderer who bought it will feel bad when he finds out there's a bunch more cards yet to hit the market.

I'm not too familiar with the process, but if you wanted to launder drug money through the hobby wouldn't you buy cards for cash at a show, then sell through PWCC or another AH?

[ullmandds]

My non bsf jennings run

[glynparson]

Well it wouldn’t be the internet if we didn’t have a bunch of fools with limited knowledge spouting bs conspiracy theories.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by x2drich2000

I think these may be new releases held back from the original find. When the show Strange Inheritance aired about the BSF, the primary contact admitted on the show that some family members decided to hold onto their portion of the collection and not consign them to Heritage. The show claimed the total number found was over 800. How many were originally held back and what the actual total was, who knows.

However, just to put some rough numbers to it, a search of Heritage website for "Black Swamp Find" comes up with 570 past results including 1 lot of 29 and 1 lot of 27 for a total of 624 cards (not factoring in any BSF cards resold or keyword hyping/spamming). Add the 175 newly graded examples and you get 799.

DJ

If I added correctly, the PSA Pop Report shows only 616 graded and in most instances only 18 of each player have been graded. 616 in the Pop but 799 based on the count???? Also seems odd that with as many cards as were found and the different quantities that there would be such a uniform population of each player. Is it possible PSA is not updating the Pop for these cards?

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

If I added correctly, the PSA Pop Report shows only 616 graded and in most instances only 18 of each player have been graded. 616 in the Pop but 799 based on the count???? Also seems odd that with as many cards as were found and the different quantities that there would be such a uniform population of each player. Is it possible PSA is not updating the Pop for these cards?

Is your 616 just BSF? Because the 175 are not labeled BSF, but definitely came from that find.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Is your 616 just BSF? Because the 175 are not labeled BSF, but definitely came from that find.

Yes just BSFs. So none of the newly graded 175 have the BSF designation? Anyway to determine if these 175 are fresh to the market as opposed to reholders for the purpose of removing the designation? And any ideas what the Pop Report figures show now on the BSF as compared to when the cards were initially graded by Heritage?

Also I have seen quite a few higher graded E98s in SGC holders some of which have the BSF designation as well.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Yes just BSFs. So none of the newly graded 175 have the BSF designation? Anyway to determine if these 175 are fresh to the market as opposed to reholders for the purpose of removing the designation? And any ideas what the Pop Report figures show now on the BSF as compared to when the cards were initially graded by Heritage?

Also I have seen quite a few higher graded E98s in SGC holders some of which have the BSF designation as well.

This link has the pop reports from 2012.

http://forum.net54baseball.com/showt...54#post1660954

A quick read suggests some reholdering for purposes of improving the grade going on. But 175 times? Seems unlikely to me, but who knows. E.g., Possible a few PSA 8 and 8.5 Benders were resubmitted and got 9s.